DEVELOPMENT OF INTEGRATED MODELS AND ANALYSIS SYSTEMS FOR MODAL SHIFT

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(1)We discuss the possibility of a shift from private to commercial trucks, analyzing the behavior of cargo shippers with statistics on physical distribution data for the year 2000, and clarify the factors involved in the choice of type of trucks by distance, item and so on. These analyses were conducted by means of discriminant analysis. As a result, we found that aside from certain items, a considerable portion of private trucks can be converted to for-hire trucks. Furthermore we estimated the feasible scale of the shift. The greater the increase in commercial trucks, the more loading efficiency would improve, and this in turn would lead to a reduction in CO2 emissions. We were able to estimate a hypothetical reduction of approximately 17 percent in CO2 emissions via a shift from private trucks to for-hire trucks.(2)The possibility of a shift away from road to railway and marine transportation is discussed by analyzing the behavior of cargo shippers and by clarifying the factors involved in the choice of transport mode in terms of transport distance, time, cost, freight lot size and other related factors. The analysis procedures were conducted using logit models. As a result, factors influencing the modal choice could be identified and it was found that a considerable portion of currently existing transportation could be converted to container transport by ship or rail. The scale of feasibility for this shift and the considerable reduction of CO2 emissions gained by this shift were estimated. Furthermore the influence on modal split of changes in transport cost and freight lot size was investigated by means of sensitivity analysis.