Composition of 5 1-year Wave Hindcast System Applicable to Arbitrary Points Around the Sea Areas of Japan

适用于日本海域任意点的5个1年期波浪后报系统的构成

• 批准号: 13680546
• 负责人: HATADA Yoshio
• 金额: $ 2.18万
• 依托单位: Ehime University
• 依托单位国家: 日本
• 项目类别: Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
• 财政年份: 2001
• 资助国家: 日本
• 起止时间: 2001 至 2002
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://kaken.nii.ac.jp/grant/KAKENHI-PROJECT-13680546/
• 关键词: 51-year wave hindcast; wave climate; trend analysis; wave estimation model; ECMWF wind data; NCEP; NCAR wind data; the Northwestern Pacific Ocean; Japan sea; 浅海波浪; 長期推算; 日本沿岸; 1点浅海モデル; 表面風解析値資料; 台風モデル風; 波高の長期変動

A long-term wave hindcast system, which consists of surface wind data from the NCEP/NCAR archive over a period of 51 years from 1948 to 1998 and a shallow water wave model based on a backward ray tracing, is developed. Comparison between measurements and hindcasts is made for the wave climate parameters and their climatic change. The results in this project are summarized as follows.1. The long-term wave hindcast system reasonably reproduces wave height climate parameters and their yearly changing rates over the recent 10 to 20 years at coastal stations around Japan.2. Applicabity of this wave hindcast system during typhoon periods is improved to embed typhoon model wind fields to the NCEP/NCAR wind data.3. The ECMWF wind data-based hindcast gives more excellent estimates of wave climate parameters than the NCEP/NCAR wind data-based hindcast, however the NCEP/NCAR wind data-based hindcast yields a slightly better estimate of wave height trend than the former because of the homogeneity of the NCEP/NCAR wind data archive.4. The 41-year hindcast waves from 1958 to 1998 indicate hardly any trend of wave climate along the coastal areas of Japan, whereas the 51-year waves give an increasing trend probably due to the poor quality of wind data in the first 10 years from 1948 to 19575. This long-term wave hindcast system is also applicable to the coastal areas of Korea. Wave height climate parameters around the coastal areas of Korea estimated by the hindcast results indicate decreasing trend or no trend over the 41-year period from 1958 to 1998.

建立了一个由NCEP/NCAR记录的1948~1998年51年海面风资料和基于后向射线追踪的浅水海浪模式组成的长期海浪后预报系统。对波浪气候参数及其气候变化进行了实测值与实测值的对比分析。本项目的研究成果总结如下：1.研究成果。长期波后预报系统合理地再现了日本周围沿海站近10到20年来的波高气候参数及其年变率。改进了该海浪后播系统在台风期间的适用性，将台风模式风场嵌入到NCEP/NCAR风场资料中。基于ECMWF风场资料的后播比基于NCEP/NCAR风场资料的后播对海浪气候参数的估计更好，但由于NCEP/NCAR风场资料档案的同质性，基于NCEP/NCAR风场资料的后播对海浪高度趋势的估计略好于前者。从1958年到1998年的41年后向波表明日本沿海地区几乎没有波浪气候的趋势，而51年的波有增加的趋势，这可能是由于19575~1948年前10年的风资料质量较差所致。这一长期波后播系统也适用于韩国沿海地区。根据后向预报结果估计的韩国沿海地区的波高气候参数表明，从1958年到1998年的41年间，波高呈下降趋势或没有下降趋势。

项目成果

M.Yamaguchi: "51-year wave hindcast and analysis of wave height climate trend on the Northwestern Pacific Ocean"Proc. 7th Int. Workshop on Wave Hindcasting and Forecasting. 48-59 (2002)

M.Yamaguchi：“西北太平洋51年波浪后报及波高气候趋势分析”Proc.

畑田 佳男: "韓国沿岸における波候とその長期変動の推定"工学ジャーナル. 第2巻. 135-147 (2003)

Yoshio Hatada：“韩国海岸波浪天气及其长期变化的估计”《工程杂志》第 2 卷 135-147（2003 年）。

畑田 佳男: "日本沿岸における波浪の長期推算結果の相互比較"工学ジャーナル. 第2巻. 149-163 (2003)

Yoshio Hatada：“日本沿海长期波浪估算结果的比较”《工程杂志》第 2 卷 149-163（2003 年）。

Hatada Y., M. Yamaguchi, M. Ohfuku and H. Nonaka: "Intercomparison of 20-Year Wave Data Hindcast on the Coastal Areas of Japan (in Japanese)"Annual Journal of Eng. Ehime Univ.. Vol. 2. 149-163 (2003)

Hatada Y.、M. Yamaguchi、M. Ohfuku 和 H. Nonaka：“日本沿海地区 20 年波浪数据后报的比较（日语）”工程年刊。

Y.Hatada: "A system for estimaling wave climate and wave extremes based on 20-year wave hindcast and its verification at the measurement stations around Japanese coasts"Proc. WAVES2001. 1. 661-670 (2001)

Y.Hatada：“基于 20 年波浪后报及其在日本海岸周围测量站的验证来估计波浪气候和极端波浪的系统”Proc。