Composition of 5 1-year Wave Hindcast System Applicable to Arbitrary Points Around the Sea Areas of Japan

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A long-term wave hindcast system, which consists of surface wind data from the NCEP/NCAR archive over a period of 51 years from 1948 to 1998 and a shallow water wave model based on a backward ray tracing, is developed. Comparison between measurements and hindcasts is made for the wave climate parameters and their climatic change. The results in this project are summarized as follows.1. The long-term wave hindcast system reasonably reproduces wave height climate parameters and their yearly changing rates over the recent 10 to 20 years at coastal stations around Japan.2. Applicabity of this wave hindcast system during typhoon periods is improved to embed typhoon model wind fields to the NCEP/NCAR wind data.3. The ECMWF wind data-based hindcast gives more excellent estimates of wave climate parameters than the NCEP/NCAR wind data-based hindcast, however the NCEP/NCAR wind data-based hindcast yields a slightly better estimate of wave height trend than the former because of the homogeneity of the NCEP/NCAR wind data archive.4. The 41-year hindcast waves from 1958 to 1998 indicate hardly any trend of wave climate along the coastal areas of Japan, whereas the 51-year waves give an increasing trend probably due to the poor quality of wind data in the first 10 years from 1948 to 19575. This long-term wave hindcast system is also applicable to the coastal areas of Korea. Wave height climate parameters around the coastal areas of Korea estimated by the hindcast results indicate decreasing trend or no trend over the 41-year period from 1958 to 1998.