A Study on the System for the Estimation of Extreme Waves Using a Stochastic Low Model

随机低模型极端波浪估计系统的研究

• 批准号: 11680471
• 负责人: HATADA Yoshio
• 金额: $ 1.86万
• 依托单位: Ehime University
• 依托单位国家: 日本
• 项目类别: Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
• 财政年份: 1999
• 资助国家: 日本
• 起止时间: 1999 至 2000
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://kaken.nii.ac.jp/grant/KAKENHI-PROJECT-11680471/
• 关键词: severe low pressure system; extreme value; high waves; wave estimation model; extreme value analysis; elliptical pressure distribution; Monte-Carlo simulation; return wave height

A stochastic low pressure model which reproduces 9 parameters of a low pressure-that is, a center position, central pressure of a low, far field pressure, inclination angle of the long axis of a pressure contour and radii of a low for orthogonal 4 axeson the assumption that the air pressure distribution in a low pressure system is approximated with elliptic distribution is developed. This model is based on the statistical analysis of parametric properties of 718 low pressure systems gathered from weather charts over the Northwestern Pacific Ocean for the past 32 years. The stochastic. low pressure model reproduces the characteristics of mean value and also a standard deviation of a characteristic of actual low pressures.Distribution of extreme value of air pressure and wind speed over the Northwestern Pacific Ocean based on simulated data that combined the stochastic low pressure model, elliptic air pressure distribution model and gradient wind model correspond with the extreme value based on ECMWF (European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) air pressure and wind analysis data.Return wave height at Japanese wave observation points along the Japan Sea coast and the Pacific Ocean coast estimated by the "System for the Estimation of Extreme Waves using a Stochastic Low Model" consists of the stochastic low pressure models a wind estimation model, wave hindcast model at a single point with high topographical resolution in shallow water and extreme value analysis model correspond comparatively with the return wave height estimated by the observation data. Return wave height estimated on the basis of the system that uses a wave hindcast model over grid points in deep water coincides to return wave height based on the point model in shallow water, in cases that are not affected by the sheltering effects of the land and that face the open sea.

在假定低压系统的气压分布近似为椭圆分布的前提下，建立了一个能再现低压中心位置、低压中心压力、远场压力、压力轮廓长轴倾角和低压正交4轴半径等9个参数的随机低压模型。该模式是基于对西北太平洋地区近32年来718个低压系统参数特性的统计分析而建立的。随机。低压模型再现了实际低压的平均值特征，也再现了实际低压特征的标准偏差。结合随机低压模式、椭圆型气压分布模式和梯度风模式模拟资料得到的西北太平洋气压和风速极值分布与ECMWF（欧洲中期天气预报中心）气压和风分析资料得到的极值相对应。“利用随机低压模式估算极端波浪系统”估算的日本海沿岸和太平洋沿岸日本波浪观测点的返回波高由随机低压模式、风估计模式、浅水高地形分辨率单点波浪后推模式和极值分析模式组成，与观测资料估算的返回波高相对应。在不受陆地遮挡作用影响且面向大海的情况下，基于在深水网格点上使用波浪后推模型的系统估计的返回波高与基于浅水点模型的返回波高一致。

项目成果

山口正隆: "確率的低気圧モデルに基づく波高の極値推算システムの適用性"海岸工学論文集. 46巻. 251-255 (1999)

Masataka Yamaguchi：“基于随机气旋模型的波高极值估计系统的适用性”海岸工程论文第46卷251-255（1999）。

山口正隆: "確率的低気圧モデルに基づく波高の極値推算システムの適用性"海岸工学論文集. 46. 251-255 (1999)

Masataka Yamaguchi：“基于随机气旋模型的波高极值估计系统的适用性”海岸工程杂志46。251-255（1999）。

M.Yamaguchi, Y.Hatada, H.Nonaka and Y.Hama: "An Applicability of a System for the Estimation of Extreme Waves Using a Stochastic Low Model"Proc. of Coastal Eng. in Japan. Vol. 46. 251-255 (1999)

M.Yamaguchi、Y.Hatada、H.Nonaka 和 Y.Hama：“使用随机低模型估计极端波浪的系统的适用性”Proc。