Modeling effects of subjective probability expressions on decision making

点击翻译按钮获取中文摘要

The directionality of verbal uncertainty expressions, or verbal probabilities, was investigated. A "positive" directionality draws the focus of communication toward the prospect that an uncertain event may materialize in the future. Conversely, a "negative" directionality draws the focus more toward expecting that an uncertain event may not materialize. Our experiments confirmed the existence of directionality in Japanese terms of uncertainty. Moreover, in out study of binary choice between gambles with verbal probabilities, we found a new kind of preference reversal phenomenon. Explanatory models were developed.