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Explorations on the "ratio bias" paradox in decision making

决策中“比率偏差”悖论的探索

基本信息

批准号：
18330154
负责人：
YAMAGISHI Kimihiko
金额：
$ 11.27万
依托单位：
Tokyo Institute of Technology
依托单位国家：
日本
项目类别：
Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B)
财政年份：
2006
资助国家：
日本
起止时间：
2006 至 2009
项目状态：
已结题

来源：
https://kaken.nii.ac.jp/grant/KAKENHI-PROJECT-18330154/
关键词：
割合錯誤比率バイアス確率判断意思決定選好

项目摘要

"The ratio bias" denotes a systematic logical anomaly in human psychology. One exhibits a ratio bias whenever her magnitude judgments pertaining to percentages show inconsistencies with logically equivalent judgments pertaining to fractions by combined integers. Yamagishi (1997)'s experimental participants rated risk of cancer as more dangerous when instructed that cancer kills "1286 people out of 10000" than when told "24.14 out of 100." This research program aimed at establishing theoretical framework to explain such phenomena, as well as providing applied prescription for risk communication. The theory, "dual Weber-Fechner Theory," appeared in journal the article 4 in the subsequent list. Papers discussing communication research in extension of the article 4 include papers 1, 3, and 4. They also inherit insights in verbal communications set forth by articles 6, 7, and 8. Finally, the article 2 offers applied work in the setting of risk communication between cancer patients and medical practitioners. Thusly this investigation accomplished the objectives in the research proposal stage.

“比率偏差”是人类心理学中一种系统的逻辑异常。当一个人对百分比的大小判断与逻辑上等价的分数判断不一致时，他就会表现出比率偏差。Yamagishi（1997）的实验参与者在被告知癌症会导致“10000人中有1286人死亡”时，比被告知“100人中有24.14人死亡”时，认为患癌症的风险更危险。“这项研究计划旨在建立理论框架来解释这种现象，并为风险沟通提供应用处方。该理论，“双韦伯-费希纳理论”，出现在杂志的文章4在随后的名单。论文讨论传播研究的延伸，第4条，包括论文1，3和4。它们还继承了第六、第七和第八条关于口头交流的规定。最后，文章2提供了应用工作的癌症患者和医生之间的风险沟通的设置。从而达到了研究建议阶段的目的。

项目成果

期刊论文数量（0）

专著数量（0）

科研奖励数量（0）

会议论文数量（0）

专利数量（0）

Which is more probable--25%+25%or40%+10%? : Effect of the distribution of focal outcomes on gut-level perception of certainty

哪个%20是%20更多%20可能--25%+25%还是40%+10%？%20:%20效果%20of%20the%20分布%20of%20焦点%20结果%20on%20直觉水平%20感知%20of%20确定性

DOI：
发表时间：
2006
期刊：
Proceedings of the 28th Annual Conference of the Cognitive Science Society (CD-Rom)
影响因子：
0
作者：
Kuninori Nakamura;Kimihiko Yamagishi
通讯作者：
Kimihiko Yamagishi

Superficially irrational,subconsciously reasonable : Measuring presumptions decision makers are unaware of

表面上不合理，潜意识里合理：衡量决策者不知道的假设