MODELING OF HOME WELFARE SERVICES FOR THE AGED IN DEPOPULATED AREA

目的：利用日本东北地区400个市町村的数据，调查了老年人的家庭福利服务利用程度与社会经济因素和大雪地区特征的相关性。主题和方法：采用逐步推进法，对家庭援助服务、短期住宿服务和一日服务的利用程度与人口统计、经济状况和医疗设施可利用性等18项指标进行了多元回归分析，并对强降雪地区的等级分组与家庭福利服务总体评价指标进行了方差分析。“人均支出”、“收入差距”、“65岁以上人口结构比率”和“第二产业三个部门的工作人员比率”被认为与城市之间家庭福利服务总体评价指数的差异有关。显着差异，发现每年的平均天数，一天的服务被100人使用65岁以上，并在指数为家庭福利服务的整体评价之间的排名组的大雪地区。然而，在100名65岁以上老人每年平均使用家庭援助服务或短期停留服务的天数以及家庭福利服务的总体评价指数方面，大雪地区的排名组之间没有发现显著差异。日本各城市在老年人福利服务方面的差异不仅是由于老龄化、财政状况等因素的差异，经济有利地区的位置，以及产业结构，而且还因为该地区降雪量的差异。

Objective: Correlations of the degree of utilization of home welfare services for the aged with socioeconomic factors and with characteristics of areas with heavy snowfalls were investigated using data obtained from 400 municipalities in the Tohoku district of Japan. Subjects and methods: Correlations of degrees of utilization of home assistance services, short stay services and one-day services with 18 indices of population statistics, economic conditions and availability of medical facilities were investigated by multiple regression analysis using the stepwise forward method.Next, correlations between ranked groups of heavy snowfall areas and indices for overall evaluation of home welfare services were investigated using analysis of variance.Results: "Expenditures per person", "income differences", "ratios of population structure for people aged over 65 years" and "ratios of people working in three sectors of secondary industry" were found to be related to differences between municipalities in the indices for overall evaluation of home welfare services. Significant differences were found in the mean number of days per year the one-day services were used by 100 people over 65 years of age and in the indices for overall evaluation of home welfare services between the ranked groups of heavy snowfall areas. However, no significant differences were found in the mean number of days per year the home assistance services or short stay services were used by 100 people over 65 years of age and in the indices for overall evaluation of home welfare services between the ranked groups of heavy snowfall areas.Conclusions: Differences between municipalities in Japan in welfare services for the aged have arisen not only because of differences in factors such as aging, financial conditions, location of economically favorable areas, and industry structure but also because of differences in the amount of snowfall in the area.