MODELING OF HOME WELFARE SERVICES FOR THE AGED IN DEPOPULATED AREA

目的：利用日本东北地区400个市的数据，研究居家养老服务利用程度与社会经济因素和大雪地区特征的相关性。研究对象和方法：采用多元逐步回归分析方法，分析家庭救助服务、短期服务和一日制服务利用程度与人口统计、经济状况、医疗设施可获得性等18项指标的相关性。其次，采用方差分析方法，分析大雪降雪地区排序群体与家庭福利服务综合评价指标的相关性。结果：“人均支出”、“收入差异”、“家庭福利服务综合评价指数”、“家庭福利服务综合评价指数”、“家庭福利服务综合评价指数”、“家庭福利服务综合评价指数”、“家庭福利服务综合评价指数”、“家庭福利服务综合评价指数”、“家庭福利服务综合评价指数”、“家庭福利服务综合评价指数”、“家庭福利服务综合评价指数”、“家庭福利服务综合评价指数”、“家庭福利服务综合评价指数”、“家庭福利服务综合评价指数”、“家庭福利服务综合评价指数”、“家庭福利服务综合评价指数”、“家庭福利服务综合评价指数”、“家庭福利服务综合评价指数”研究发现，“65岁以上人口结构比率”和“第二产业三个部门工作人员比率”与市政当局在家庭福利服务总体评价指数方面的差异有关。65岁以上老年人平均每年使用一日服务的天数和家庭福利服务总体评价指数在大雪降雪区各等级组之间存在显着差异。然而，65岁以上的100人每年平均使用居家救助服务或短期居留服务的天数以及居家福利服务的总体评价指标在大雪降雪地区的排名群体之间没有显著差异。结论：日本各直辖市在养老服务方面存在差异，这不仅是由于老龄化、经济状况、经济有利地区的地理位置和产业结构等因素的差异，也是因为该地区降雪量的不同。

Objective: Correlations of the degree of utilization of home welfare services for the aged with socioeconomic factors and with characteristics of areas with heavy snowfalls were investigated using data obtained from 400 municipalities in the Tohoku district of Japan. Subjects and methods: Correlations of degrees of utilization of home assistance services, short stay services and one-day services with 18 indices of population statistics, economic conditions and availability of medical facilities were investigated by multiple regression analysis using the stepwise forward method.Next, correlations between ranked groups of heavy snowfall areas and indices for overall evaluation of home welfare services were investigated using analysis of variance.Results: "Expenditures per person", "income differences", "ratios of population structure for people aged over 65 years" and "ratios of people working in three sectors of secondary industry" were found to be related to differences between municipalities in the indices for overall evaluation of home welfare services. Significant differences were found in the mean number of days per year the one-day services were used by 100 people over 65 years of age and in the indices for overall evaluation of home welfare services between the ranked groups of heavy snowfall areas. However, no significant differences were found in the mean number of days per year the home assistance services or short stay services were used by 100 people over 65 years of age and in the indices for overall evaluation of home welfare services between the ranked groups of heavy snowfall areas.Conclusions: Differences between municipalities in Japan in welfare services for the aged have arisen not only because of differences in factors such as aging, financial conditions, location of economically favorable areas, and industry structure but also because of differences in the amount of snowfall in the area.