MODELING OF HOME WELFARE SERVICES FOR THE AGED IN DEPOPULATED AREA

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Objective: Correlations of the degree of utilization of home welfare services for the aged with socioeconomic factors and with characteristics of areas with heavy snowfalls were investigated using data obtained from 400 municipalities in the Tohoku district of Japan. Subjects and methods: Correlations of degrees of utilization of home assistance services, short stay services and one-day services with 18 indices of population statistics, economic conditions and availability of medical facilities were investigated by multiple regression analysis using the stepwise forward method.Next, correlations between ranked groups of heavy snowfall areas and indices for overall evaluation of home welfare services were investigated using analysis of variance.Results: "Expenditures per person", "income differences", "ratios of population structure for people aged over 65 years" and "ratios of people working in three sectors of secondary industry" were found to be related to differences between municipalities in the indices for overall evaluation of home welfare services. Significant differences were found in the mean number of days per year the one-day services were used by 100 people over 65 years of age and in the indices for overall evaluation of home welfare services between the ranked groups of heavy snowfall areas. However, no significant differences were found in the mean number of days per year the home assistance services or short stay services were used by 100 people over 65 years of age and in the indices for overall evaluation of home welfare services between the ranked groups of heavy snowfall areas.Conclusions: Differences between municipalities in Japan in welfare services for the aged have arisen not only because of differences in factors such as aging, financial conditions, location of economically favorable areas, and industry structure but also because of differences in the amount of snowfall in the area.