Observation and modeling of the perceptual errors of service level on route choice for efficient transportation network planning

在日本，大量的交通规划中使用了基于出行需求分析的个人选择模型的方式选择模型和路径选择模型。然而，近年来，一些被高估的出行需求结果遭到了公众的严厉批评。这些批评大多发生在运营服务开始后的几年左右，但我们认为，用户对交通网络变化的认识和对交通系统实际服务水平的认可需要一定的时间。当过去的交通系统发生重大变化时，对过去服务水平的记忆可能是固定的。本研究首先对东京都区的城市铁路乘客对铁路服务水平的感知误差和新铁路乘客数量的时间序列进行了观察。调查结果表明，观测结果明确证实了出行时间和拥堵率的感知误差，感知误差主要归因于过往经验中的路线服务水平、服务满意度和信息收集能力。这些实证结果表明，报告的价值的替代品是系统性的偏见，而不是随机的误解。感知误差成为一个主要问题，揭示偏好分析时，我们的出行需求预测模型。因此，我们提出了一些路径选择行为模型的运输服务水平估计模型的感知误差。本文提出了基于参数化logit囚禁的选择集生成模型的感知替代路径估计方法，以及路径选择和感知交通服务水平的同时估计模型。

The mode choice model and route choice model using the individual choice model for travel demand analysis are used for a lot of transportation planning in Japan. However, some overestimated travel demand results have been faced harsh public criticism in recent years. These criticisms are occurred during approximately several years after starting operation service in many cases.However, we think that a certain fixed period is required for advancement in user's awareness of changed transportation network and the recognition of actual service level to the transportation system. When a major change of a transportation system in the past was made, memory of the past service level may be fixed.First this study presents some observation results on the urban railway passengers' perceptual errors of railway service level and time-series number of passenger of new railway in Tokyo metropolitan area. The results of this survey are that observation results are explicitly confirmed perceptual errors on travel time and congestion rate and that perceptual error is attributable to the past experience of route service level, satisfaction level of service and information-gathering ability. These empirical results show that reported values for alternatives are systematically biased, rather than being randomly misperceived.Perceptual error becomes a major issue in revealed preference analysis when we make travel demand forecasting models. Therefore, we proposed some route choice behavior models with perceptual error of transportation service level estimation model. This study shows estimation method of perceptual alternative routes by choice set generation model using parameterized logit captivity, and simultaneous estimation model of route choice and the perceptual transportation service level.