PHILOSOPHICAL STUDIES ON PLAUSIBLE INFERENCE AND SURE INFERENCE

这项研究的目的是从哲学的角度，弄清楚我们在从几个前提进行统计或概率推理时做了什么。特别是，我们主要关注贝叶斯推理。我们的战略是双重的。一是从哲学史的角度研究概率推理。另一种是从当代概率哲学的角度来研究这些问题。我们在亚里士多德的目的论的背景下研究了亚里士多德的机会概念。研究的结果是，偶然性与亚里士多德的目的论并不矛盾。在现代，休谟讨论了奇迹。因此，我们从当代的概率论重新表述了他的论点，并对其进行了仔细的审查。我们的结论是，他们的论点富有成果，具有启发性，尽管我们在阐述他们的论点时必须谨慎。从当代概率哲学的观点出发，我们研究了概率推理的纯理论问题和应用。我们将经典统计学和贝叶斯统计学进行了对比，得出了Levi的工作仍然有用和有启发意义的结论。有人声称，贝叶斯主义在这方面存在严重困难。然而，我们证明了使用动态蒙特卡罗方法可以避免这一困难。关于概率推理的应用，我们研究了需要所谓的人类原理作为假设的论点，也研究了末日论点。我们发现，这些论点的结构与关于自我认同的论点基本相同。我们还表明，关于僵尸假说的讨论与这些争论密切相关。

The aim of this research is to make clear of what we do in inferring statistically or probabilistically from a few premises from a philosophical point of view. Particularly, we focused Bayesian inference mainly. Our strategy is two-fold. One is to study probabilistic inferences from the standpoint of history of philosophy. The other is to study these from the standpoint of a contemporary philosophy of probability. We studied the Aristotelian chance notion in the context of his teleology. The result of the study is that chance is not incompatible with Aristotle's teleology. In modern times Hume discussed miracles. Therefore we reformulated his argument from a contemporary theory of probability and scrutinized it. Our conclusion is that their arguments are fruitful and suggestive although we have to be careful in formulating their arguments. From the standpoint of a contemporary philosophy of probability, we studied purely theoretical problems and applications of probabilistic inference. We contrasted classical statistics with Bayesian statistics and got the conclusion that Levi's work is still useful and suggestive. It has been claimed that Bayesianism has a serious difficulty in it. However, we showed that we could avoid this difficulty by using the dynamic Monte Carlo method. With respect to applications of probabilistic inference, we studied arguments in which we need the so-called anthropic principle as an assumption, and also we studied doomsday argument. We showed that the structure of these arguments is basically the same as the argument on self-identity. We also showed that the discussion on Zombie hypothesis is closely related with these arguments.