PHILOSOPHICAL STUDIES ON PLAUSIBLE INFERENCE AND SURE INFERENCE

合理推理和确定推理的哲学研究

• 批准号: 15320006
• 负责人: HATTORI Hiroyuki
• 金额: $ 3.71万
• 依托单位: NANZAN UNIVERSITY
• 依托单位国家: 日本
• 项目类别: Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B)
• 财政年份: 2003
• 资助国家: 日本
• 起止时间: 2003 至 2005
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://kaken.nii.ac.jp/grant/KAKENHI-PROJECT-15320006/
• 关键词: inductivism; subjective probability; Bayesian inference; Dutch Book argument; anthropic principle; doomsday argument; self sampling assumption; statistical reality

The aim of this research is to make clear of what we do in inferring statistically or probabilistically from a few premises from a philosophical point of view. Particularly, we focused Bayesian inference mainly. Our strategy is two-fold. One is to study probabilistic inferences from the standpoint of history of philosophy. The other is to study these from the standpoint of a contemporary philosophy of probability. We studied the Aristotelian chance notion in the context of his teleology. The result of the study is that chance is not incompatible with Aristotle's teleology. In modern times Hume discussed miracles. Therefore we reformulated his argument from a contemporary theory of probability and scrutinized it. Our conclusion is that their arguments are fruitful and suggestive although we have to be careful in formulating their arguments. From the standpoint of a contemporary philosophy of probability, we studied purely theoretical problems and applications of probabilistic inference. We contrasted classical statistics with Bayesian statistics and got the conclusion that Levi's work is still useful and suggestive. It has been claimed that Bayesianism has a serious difficulty in it. However, we showed that we could avoid this difficulty by using the dynamic Monte Carlo method. With respect to applications of probabilistic inference, we studied arguments in which we need the so-called anthropic principle as an assumption, and also we studied doomsday argument. We showed that the structure of these arguments is basically the same as the argument on self-identity. We also showed that the discussion on Zombie hypothesis is closely related with these arguments.

本研究的目的是从哲学的角度，从统计学或概率学的角度，从几个前提下，我们做什么推断清楚。特别是，我们主要关注贝叶斯推理。我们的战略是双重的。一是从哲学史的角度研究概率推理。另一种是从当代概率哲学的观点来研究这些问题。我们在他的目的论的背景下研究了亚里士多德的机会概念。研究的结果是，机会与亚里士多德的目的论并不矛盾。在现代休谟讨论奇迹。因此，我们重新制定了他的论点，从当代理论的概率，并仔细审查它。我们的结论是，他们的论点是富有成效的和启发性的，虽然我们必须小心，在制定他们的论点。从当代概率哲学的观点出发，我们研究了概率推理的纯理论问题和应用。我们将经典统计与贝叶斯统计进行了对比，得出了Levi的工作仍然是有用的和有启发性的结论。有人认为贝叶斯方法在这方面有严重的困难，但我们用动态蒙特卡罗方法证明了这一困难是可以避免的。关于概率推理的应用，我们研究了需要所谓的人择原理作为假设的论证，也研究了末日论证。我们发现，这些论点的结构基本上与自我同一性的论点相同。我们还发现，对僵尸假说的讨论与这些论点密切相关。

项目成果

Unnatural natural selections by the natural Selection theory

自然选择理论的非自然自然选择

• 发表时间: 2006
• 期刊: Gendai-shiso (Seidosha) Vol.34-2
• 作者: 小山静子;菅井凰展;山口和宏 編;小野原雅夫;Toshihiko Miura
• 通讯作者: Toshihiko Miura

意志の弱さ・心の非法則性・素朴心理学

意志薄弱、心智不规律、心理简单

• 发表时间: 2005
• 期刊: アカデミア(人文・社会科学編) 81
• 作者: 小山静子;菅井凰展;山口和宏編;佐藤和夫;小杉泰;Tatsuya Kashiwabata;寺田俊郎;小森 宏美;Tetsuji Iseda;寺田俊郎;小森 宏美;Tetsuji Iseda;石井 正子;舟場保之;Tetsuji Iseda;帯谷 知可;舟場保之;臼杵 陽;服部 裕幸
• 通讯作者: 服部 裕幸

Weakness of the will, anomaly of the mental, and folk psychology

意志薄弱、精神异常、民间心理

• 发表时间: 2005
• 期刊: Academia (Nanzan Univ.) No.81
• 作者: Hiroyuki Hattori

自己散瞞の構造と成立-哲学的・論理学的分析の試み-

自欺欺人的结构和建立——哲学和逻辑分析的尝试——

• 发表时间: 2005
• 期刊: 近現代知識論の動向とその21世紀的展望(宮原琢磨編) (3月刊行予定)
• 作者: Kurimoto;Eisei;柏端達也
• 通讯作者: 柏端達也

ダーウィン革命とニフの自然観

达尔文的革命和尼夫的自然观

• 发表时间: 2004
• 期刊: 哲学 55
• 作者: Kosugi;Yasushi;Teruo Yokoyama;石井 正子;Masayoshi Shibata;飯塚正人;Yoshihiko Kaneko;大塚 和夫;金子善彦;Otsuka Kazuo;Otsuka Kazuo;柴田正良;横山輝雄
• 通讯作者: 横山輝雄