A study of economic effect of non-smoking using a system model

本研究的目的是找出非吸烟作为各种疾病的积极预防措施的经济效果，并利用系统模型将其引入个人和社会，并获得作为最具成本效益的反吸烟措施的潜在数据。代表了吸烟的各种进展和戒烟，并开发了系统模型，计算了吸烟导致的癌症发病率和死亡率增加带来的相对损失收益。在20-50岁的男性肺癌患者中，吸烟造成的人均增量利润损失约为100万日元。男性肺癌医疗费用为2449亿日元，女性为1132亿日元，合计为3582亿日元。其中，烟草使用分别占53.4%、49.2%、52.1%。吸烟引起的癌症的医疗费用在男性胃癌(376亿日元)中占15%，在男性结肠癌和直肠癌(170亿和99亿日元)中占8%，在乳腺癌(71亿日元)中占3%，在子宫癌(38亿日元)中占6%。吸烟导致的七种主要癌症的平均损失为每人1550万日元(男性1930万日元，女性1020万日元)。通过发病风险变化的敏感性分析，认为该系统模型具有较高的可靠性。

The purposes of this research are to find out the economic effect of non-smoking as positive preventive measures of various illnesses which can be achieved into an individual and society using a system model, and to obtain the underlying such data as the most cost-effective measure against smoking. Various progress and cessation of smoking were typified and the system model was developed, which calculates relative lost profits from the increase in the morbidity and mortality of cancer by smoking. An incremental lost profit per person by smoking in male lung cancer affection is about 1 million yen at 20-50 years old. Medical expenditure by lung cancer affection is 244,900 million yen in man, 113,200 million yen in woman, and 358,200 million yen in total. Of these, tobacco use accounts for 53.4%, 49.2%, 52.1% respectively. Medical cost of cancer caused by tobacco use is 15% in male gastric cancer (37,600 million yen), 8% in male colon and rectal cancer (17,000 million and 9,900 million yen), 3% in breast cancer (7,100 million yen) and 6% in uterine cancer (3,800 million yen). The average loss of having main seven cancers by tobacco use is 15.5 million yen per affected person (19.3 million yen in man, 10.2 million yen in woman). It is thought that reliability of this systems model is relatively high from sensitivity analysis by change of morbidity risk.