A study of economic effect of non-smoking using a system model

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The purposes of this research are to find out the economic effect of non-smoking as positive preventive measures of various illnesses which can be achieved into an individual and society using a system model, and to obtain the underlying such data as the most cost-effective measure against smoking. Various progress and cessation of smoking were typified and the system model was developed, which calculates relative lost profits from the increase in the morbidity and mortality of cancer by smoking. An incremental lost profit per person by smoking in male lung cancer affection is about 1 million yen at 20-50 years old. Medical expenditure by lung cancer affection is 244,900 million yen in man, 113,200 million yen in woman, and 358,200 million yen in total. Of these, tobacco use accounts for 53.4%, 49.2%, 52.1% respectively. Medical cost of cancer caused by tobacco use is 15% in male gastric cancer (37,600 million yen), 8% in male colon and rectal cancer (17,000 million and 9,900 million yen), 3% in breast cancer (7,100 million yen) and 6% in uterine cancer (3,800 million yen). The average loss of having main seven cancers by tobacco use is 15.5 million yen per affected person (19.3 million yen in man, 10.2 million yen in woman). It is thought that reliability of this systems model is relatively high from sensitivity analysis by change of morbidity risk.