Modelling spatial variability of periglacial processes based on a global monitoring network

在冰缘环境中，全球气候变暖引发多年冻土和季节性霜冻的退化，进而可能破坏山坡的稳定，改变地球表面的状况。为了建立全球冰缘过程监测网络，我们的目标是建设示范实验场，规范监测技术，扩大监测网络。这个为期三年的项目取得了以下成果1。在北极斯瓦尔巴特群岛的模拟试验场进行监测，促进了基岩冻土楔入、距骨坡永久冻土蠕变、土坡冻胀和冻胀以及低地热收缩破裂等技术的改进和标准化，并揭示了这些过程的时间和规模。各种地球物理探测技术使我们能够可视化地下内部结构和冰/水在地下的三维分布。结合监测和探测的结果，我们建立了冰缘过程的时间和空间变化模型。监测网络已扩展到世界上各种冰川周围环境，从极地(南极洲和阿拉斯加)到中纬度高山(瑞士和日本阿尔卑斯山、西藏和蒙古)。获得的冻土和冰缘过程数据将临时模型提升为全球适用的模型。无法直接监测的低温扰动和风化过程，实验室规模的模型使我们能够估计这些过程的环境条件。基于上述结果，我们预测了未来与多年冻土和季节性冻土退化相关的环境变化。

In periglacial environments, global climatic warming triggers degradation of permafrost and seasonal frost, which in turn, may destabilize mountain slopes and change earth surface conditions. Toward establishing a global network for monitoring periglacial processes, we aimed at constructing model experimental sites, standardizing monitoring techniques and expanding the monitoring network. The three-year project provided the following results.1. Monitoring at model experimental sites in High-Arctic Svalbard promoted improvement and standardization of techniques for frost wedging in bedrock, permafrost creep in talus slopes, frost heave and solifluction on soil slopes and thermal contraction cracking in lowlands, as well as revealed the timing and magnitude of these processes. A variety of geophysical sounding techniques permitted us to visualize the subsurface internal structure and 3-D distribution of ice/water in the ground. Coupling the results from monitoring and sounding, we developed models of the temporal and spatial variations in the periglacial processes.2. The monitoring network was expanded to a variety of periglacial environments in the world, ranging from polar regions (Antarctica and Alaska) to mid-latitude high mountains (Swiss and Japanese Alps, Tibet and Mongolia). The obtained data on frozen ground and periglacial processes enhanced the provisional models to be globally applicable models.3. Cryoturbation and weathering processes, which cannot be monitored directly, laboratory scale models enabled us to estimate the environmental conditions for the processes.4. Base of the above results we predicted future environmental changes associated with permafrost and seasonal frost degradation.