A study on agent based evaluation methods to reduce damage at urban area

当灾害威胁到人类生命安全时，我们希望利用基于Agent的社会仿真（ABSS）来预测人员的疏散行为，并对灾害造成的损失进行评估。当ABSS应用于实际应用时，有必要向潜在用户展示ABSS输出的有效性。在科学和工程领域，猜测-计算结果-将实验结果与仿真结果进行比较的过程被反复使用以提高仿真的逼真度。社会现象与可以用自然科学规律解释的现象相反，社会现象不是客观衡量的，而是由人主观解释的。这使得系统地分析社会现象和评价代理人的绩效变得困难。在大多数情况下，很难获得真实的情况下的数据或进行实验来验证ABSS的结果和分析结果，在本研究中，考虑的灾难和救援仿真系统作为ABSS的一个例子，方法分析的仿真输出，没有任何相关的应用领域的指标进行了研究和分析结果的解释。概率模型已被广泛用于模拟仿真参数和Agent特性的变化。大量的模拟与统计改变他们被用来验证模拟结果。例如，约翰逊等人模拟了公共建筑的疏散，并提出了风险评估技术。我们的方法使用一种随机的方法来表示代理的状态和分析他们的行为。分析方法是基于数学量，如秩，特征值等。他们是独立的特定领域的评估和建议的潜力，将被应用到其他领域的方法。

When disasters threaten human life, we want to use agent-based social simulation (ABSS) to predict the evacuation behavior of person and to estimate damage of disasters. When the ABSS is applied to practical usages, it is necessary to demonstrate the validity of the ABSS's outputs to the potential users. In scientific and engineering fields, the process Guess-Compute consequence-Compare experiment results with simulation results has been repeatedly used to increase the fidelity of simulations. Social phenomena are in contrast to the phenomena that can be explained using the laws of natural science.The Social phenomena are not so much objectively measured but subjectively interpreted by humans. It makes difficult to systematically analyze the social phenomena and to evaluate the performances of agents. In most cases, it is difficult to obtain data on real cases or conduct experiments to verify the results of ABSS and the analysis results.In this research, considering the disaster and rescue simulation system as an example of ABSS, methods to analyze the simulation outputs without any metrics related with the application domain have been studied and the interpretation of the analysis results are shown. The probability model has been widely used to model the variations in the parameters of simulation and agent characters. A large number of simulations with changing them statistically are used to verify simulation results. For example, Johnson, et al. have simulated the evacuation of public buildings and proposed risk assessment techniques. Our approach uses a stochastic approach to represent the states of the agents and analyze their behaviors.The analysis method is based on mathematical quantity such as rank, eigenvalue, etc. They are independent of domain specific evaluations and suggest the potential of the method that will be applied to other fields.