Modeling of Confrontation and Conflict by Synthesizing Mathematical and Simulation Approach

这项研究项目的任务有两个：第一个是调查对抗和冲突的数学和模拟方法综合的有效性，最大限度地结合决策情况。我们正试图以一种正式的方式对这种情况进行概念化。二是提出了一个可以讨论对抗和冲突的过程和结构的统一框架。在这一使命下，我们将数学/分析模型与仿真模型相结合，开发了创新的模型。在已有的超博弈模型、戏剧模型和景观模型的基础上，我们提出了一个创新的模型，并介绍了研究结果。同时，我们在印度尼西亚的锡塔鲁姆河流域进行了一次有当地研究人员参与的实证研究对抗。我们发现了地方政府、中央政府、下游产业、上游居民/农民等不同利益相关者之间的严重对抗。针对这一问题，我们发展了DtDA(戏剧理论困境分析)，并应用它提出了一些解决冲突的现实建议。

The mission of this research project id two-fold : The first is to investigate validity of synthesis of mathematical and simulation approaches to confrontation and conflict, extremely incorporate decision situation. We are trying to conceptualize such situation in a formal way. The second is to propose a unified framework in which we could discuss process and structure of confrontation and conflict.Under such mission we developed innovative models by combining mathematical/analytical models with simulation models. Indeed, based on recent investigation hypergame model, dramatic model and landscape model, we could propose an innovative model and gave presentations on the results.At the same time we conducted an empirical research confrontation in Citarum River basin in Indonesia, involving some local researchers. We identify sever confrontation among various stakeholders like local governments, central governments, lower stream industries, upper stream habitants/farmers and so on. To deal with the problem, we developed DtDA (Drama-theoretic Dilemma Analysis) and, applying it, we proposed some realistic recommendations for resolving the conflicts.