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Forecasting of damage level of damaged maritime structures and estimation of degree of risk on coasts due to storm surge and wind waves caused by typhoons

受台风风暴潮、风浪影响的海上建筑物受损程度预测及海岸风险程度评估

基本信息

批准号：
17510153
负责人：
HASHIMURA Ryusuke
金额：
$ 1.31万
依托单位：
Sojo University
依托单位国家：
日本
项目类别：
Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
财政年份：
2005
资助国家：
日本
起止时间：
2005 至 2007
项目状态：
已结题

项目摘要

Typhoons which pass through the Kyushu Island have many courses. Typhoons strike the Kyushu Island a few times a year. Damage of the maritime structures by storm surge and wind waves frequently occurs in the western two prefectures, Kumamoto and Nagasaki Prefectures. The coastline in these prefectures is complex. It faces open and closed seas. The coastline facing these areas has different topographical characteristics.The author proposes four kinds of method for forecasting the damage level of maritime structures along the coastline at each coast for each path of typhoon. The first one is the MWS (maximum wind speed) Method. The MWS Method is based on the maximum wind speed near typhoon center at latitude of 30°N. The second one is the Magnitude Method. The Magnitude Method is defined based on the maximum wind speed and the typhoon size. The third one is the EWE (equivalent wave energy) Method. The EWE Method is defined based on the maximum wind speed and the duration of wind blowing … More of typhoon. The fourth one is the CP (central pressure) Method. The CP Method is defined based on the central pressure of the typhoon at latitude of 30°N.The index of vulnerability of each coast for the typhoons of same rank at latitude of 30°N is estimated by the method mentioned above. By using this vulnerability index, the damage level of maritime structures by a coming typhoon at each coast can be estimated when the typhoon passes through at latitude of 30°N.In 1999, Typhoon 9918 struck Kyushu Island. Due to the storm surge and wind waves, the typhoon caused enormous damage to maritime structures. The four kinds of forecasting method, which is proposed by author, is examined to estimate the damage level of damaged maritime structures along the coast caused by Typhoon 9918. The result shows that the forecasting method can be used to estimate the damage level of maritime structures that will occur along the coast before a typhoon strikes.The method, which developed in this time, shows possibility of the estimation of degree of the risk and influence of typhoon on the coasts. The forecasting method will be used for the purpose of coastal zone management in disasters prevention works. Further, it is useful for information of storm warning and evacuation for residents along the coastlines. Less

经过九州岛的台风有许多路线。台风每年会袭击九州岛几次。在熊本县和长崎县这两个西部县，风暴潮和风浪对海上建筑的破坏经常发生。这些县的海岸线很复杂。它面对着开阔和封闭的海洋。面对这些地区的海岸线具有不同的地形特征。针对台风的不同路径，提出了四种预测沿海海上建筑物破坏程度的方法。第一个是MWS（最大风速）法。MWS方法以北纬30°台风中心附近的最大风速为依据。第二个是大小方法。震级法是根据最大风速和台风大小来定义的。三是等效波能法（EWE）。EWE法是根据最大风速和风吹的持续时间来定义的。第四种是中心压法。CP方法是根据台风在北纬30°的中心气压来定义的。用上述方法估算了30°N纬度上各海岸同等级台风的易损性指数。利用该易损性指数，可以估计台风在北纬30°经过时，各海岸的海上建筑物的破坏程度。1999年，台风9918袭击了九州岛。由于风暴潮和风浪，台风对海上建筑造成了巨大的破坏。对作者提出的四种预测方法进行了试验，以估计9918台风对沿海海上建筑的破坏程度。结果表明，该预测方法可用于预测台风来袭前沿海海上构筑物的破坏程度。该方法是在这一时期发展起来的，显示了台风对海岸的危险性和影响程度估计的可能性。该预报方法将用于海岸带防灾管理工作。此外，它对风暴预警和沿海居民疏散的信息也很有用。少