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UPSURGE: Helping storm surge barriers prepare for climate change

UPSURGE：帮助风暴潮屏障为气候变化做好准备

基本信息

批准号：
NE/V018655/1
负责人：
Ivan Haigh
金额：
$ 20.05万
依托单位：
University of Southampton
依托单位国家：
英国
项目类别：
Research Grant
财政年份：
2021
资助国家：
英国
起止时间：
2021 至无数据
项目状态：
未结题

来源：
https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=NE%2FV018655%2F1
关键词：
UPSURGE Helping storm surge barriers

项目摘要

Over the last 30-years more than 20 large surge barriers, and many other smaller ones, have been built at a cost of billions of pounds, to provide flood protection to people, property and infrastructure in coastal areas. Around the North Sea coastline, which is renowned for its large storm surges there are 16 storm surge barriers that offer flood protection to communities in low-lying coastal areas on the UK east coast and in the Netherlands. London's very existence as a major world city would be precarious without the Thames Barrier and 17 million inhabitants Netherlands' are only able to live in coastal regions which are near to or below sea level, because of the presence of 5 surge barriers, and accompanying defences. As a result of climate change, especially sea-level rise and changes in storminess, surge barriers are having to be used more frequently and this is already starting to negatively impact barrier operation, integrity/reliability, maintenance and projected lifespan. Increased use of barriers also has negative ramifications for shipping and the health of the estuary/river behind the barrier, and the important ecosystems (e.g., saltmarshes) they support. Even if we stabilise or reduce our carbon emission, there is a long-time delay in response and sea levels will continue to rise for many hundreds of years. Therefore, it is vital that barrier operators carefully consider the full range of impacts of climate change and adapt their operation, maintenance and management strategies, and future upgrade/replacement plans accordingly, so they will continue to be effective in protecting human lives and livelihoods. In this Knowledge Exchange Fellowship, I propose to work 50% of my time over 3-years with two key organisations, the Environment Agency and Rijkswaterstaat. Together they operate and manage 16 storm surge barriers in the UK and Netherlands. Throughout the fellowship I will also interact regularly with I-STORM, an international knowledge sharing network for professionals relating to the management, operation and maintenance of storm surge barriers, to ensure the fellowship can benefit all the existing (and planned) storm surge barriers around the world.I will undertake four main inter-linked activities. First, I will deeply imbed myself with the relevant teams in the EA and Rijkswaterstaat to produce a comprehensive inventory of the different ways sea-level rise and other effects of climate change will negatively impact surge barrier operation/management. We will carefully consider possible solutions/adaption strategies to each of these challenge that arise from climate change, and identify tipping points and associated timings when a major barrier replacement might be required.Second, I will help barrier operators to establish a framework and software tool that will make it easier for them to: (i) monitor and assess in real time how sea levels (and other relevant climate related variables) are changing in the vicinity of different surge barriers; (ii) quantify how this has impacted the number of closures over time; and (iii) in turn assess how this has affected barrier operation/maintenance to date.Third, I will create a flexible software tool that will allow operators to easily and accurately estimate the likely future number of closures for any barrier and any given climate change projection. This will be used by strategists to help guide adaptive planning of future upgrade/replacement of key barrier infrastructure, that will inevitably be required in the future. Fourth, working closely with the EA, Rijkswaterstaat and I-STORM, we will distil the lessons learnt from the three activities mentioned above, into a policy brief, packaged with accompanying software tools, that will better allow barrier managers worldwide to future proof their operations to climate change and develop adaptive planning for future barrier upgrades/replacements.

在过去的30年里，已经建造了20多个大型浪涌屏障和许多其他较小的屏障，耗资数十亿英镑，为沿海地区的人民，财产和基础设施提供防洪保护。在以大风暴潮而闻名的北海海岸线周围，有16个风暴潮屏障，为英国东海岸和荷兰低洼沿海地区的社区提供防洪保护。伦敦作为一个主要的世界城市的存在将是不稳定的，没有泰晤士河屏障，1700万荷兰居民只能生活在接近或低于海平面的沿海地区，因为存在5个浪涌屏障和伴随的防御。由于气候变化，特别是海平面上升和风暴的变化，必须更频繁地使用浪涌屏障，这已经开始对屏障的运行、完整性/可靠性、维护和预期寿命产生负面影响。更多地使用障碍物也对航运和障碍物后面的河口/河流的健康以及重要的生态系统（例如，盐沼（Saltmarshes）他们支持。即使我们稳定或减少了碳排放，响应也会有很长的时间延迟，海平面将继续上升数百年。因此，屏障运营商必须认真考虑气候变化的各种影响，并相应调整其运营、维护和管理战略以及未来的升级/更换计划，以便继续有效地保护人类生命和生计。在这个知识交流奖学金中，我计划在三年内将50%的时间用于两个关键组织，环境署和Rijkswaterstaat。他们在英国和荷兰共同运营和管理16个风暴潮屏障。在整个奖学金期间，我还将定期与I-STORM交流，这是一个为风暴潮屏障管理，运营和维护专业人员提供的国际知识共享网络，以确保奖学金能够惠及世界各地所有现有（和计划中）的风暴潮屏障。首先，我将与EA和Rijkswaterstaat的相关团队深入合作，以全面了解海平面上升和气候变化的其他影响对浪涌屏障运营/管理产生负面影响的不同方式。我们将仔细考虑应对气候变化带来的每一项挑战的可能解决方案/适应战略，并确定可能需要更换主要屏障的临界点和相关时间。其次，我将帮助屏障运营商建立一个框架和软件工具，使他们更容易：（i）真实的实时监测和评估海平面（和其他相关的气候变量）在不同的浪涌屏障附近正在发生变化;（ii）量化这一点如何随着时间的推移影响关闭的数量;以及（iii）评估这对屏障运行/维护的影响。第三，我将创建一个灵活的软件工具，使运营商能够轻松准确地估计任何屏障未来可能关闭的数量和任何给定的气候变化预测。战略家将利用这一点帮助指导今后不可避免地需要的关键屏障基础设施的升级/更换的适应性规划。第四，我们将与环境署、国家水务署和I-STORM密切合作，将从上述三项活动中吸取的经验教训纳入政策简报，并与配套的软件工具打包，这将更好地使全球屏障管理人员能够在未来证明其运营对气候变化的影响，并为未来的屏障升级/更换制定适应性规划。