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人口構造変化と経経成長

人口变化和经济增长

基本信息

批准号：
17730187
负责人：
田畑顕
金额：
$ 1.98万
依托单位：
Kobe City University of Foreign Studies
依托单位国家：
日本
项目类别：
Grant-in-Aid for Young Scientists (B)
财政年份：
2005
资助国家：
日本
起止时间：
2005 至 2007
项目状态：
已结题

来源：
https://kaken.nii.ac.jp/grant/KAKENHI-PROJECT-17730187/
关键词：
高齢化賦課年金経常収支人口構造変化経済成長

项目摘要

Diamond(1965)タイプの2期間世代重複モデルに,賦課方式の年金を導入し,「長寿化」(期待寿命の上昇)および「少子化」(人口成長率の低下)による高齢化の進展が,経済成長率に及ぼす影響について考察を行った。主要な結果は以下のようになる。第1に「人口成長率」と「経済成長率」の間に逆Uすの関係が成立することを示した。人口成長率が十分に低い場合,人口成長率の上昇は,賦課年金の社会保険料負担の低下を通じ,貯蓄および1人当たり資本の蓄積を促進し,経済成長率に正の影響を及ぼす。しかし更なる人口成長率の上昇は,貯蓄の希薄化を招き,1人当たり資本の蓄積を阻害し,経済成長率に負の影響を及ぼす。第2に「期待寿命」と「経済成長率」の間にも逆Uすの関係が成立することを示した。期待寿命が十分に低い場合,期待寿命の上昇は,人々に老年期に備えた貯蓄をする動機を与え,貯蓄および1人当たり資本の蓄積を促進し,経済成長率に正の影響を及ぼす。しかし更なる期待寿命の上昇は,社会保険料負担の上昇を通じ,貯蓄および1人当たり資本の蓄積を阻害し,経済成長率に負の影響を及ぼす。以上の結果は,先進国における「長寿化」,「少子化」による高齢化の進展がともに経済成長率に負の影響を及ぼす可能性があることを示唆する。以上の研究成果("Demographic Structure and Growth: the effect of unfunded social security")はレフェリーによる査読を経て,学術雑誌Economics Lettersへの近日中の掲載が決定している。またH18年度に作成した学術論文"Spillover Effect of Population Aging, International Capital Flows, and Welfare"を62nd European Meeting of Econometric Society (Budapest 2007)にて報告する機会を得た。

Diamond (1965) pays more attention to the purchase of annuities during the second period of the year, including annuity payments, "longevity" (higher life expectancy), "fewer children" (low population growth rate), higher growth rates and higher growth rates. The main results are as follows. In the first chapter, "population growth rate" and "net growth rate", in contrast to the United Nations Economic and Trade Organization, the establishment of a national economic growth rate will show a high level of economic growth. The population growth rate is very low, the population growth rate is high, the annuity social security fund is expected to be low, and the population growth rate is positive. The population growth rate is on the rise, and the population growth rate is on the rise. One person should be the capital stock to prevent damage, and the growth rate will increase significantly. In the second chapter, "Life expectancy", "growth rate" and "growth rate", the second chapter, "life expectancy", "growth rate", "growth rate" and "growth rate". Life expectancy is very low, and life expectancy is on the rise. In old age, people are equipped to stock up on motor vehicles and equipment, and one person is responsible for the promotion of health capital savings, and the growth rate of life expectancy is increasing. The average life expectancy is on the rise, and the social security system is on the rise. One person is responsible for the capital stock to prevent damage, and the growth rate has a significant impact on growth. As a result of the above results, the first step is to increase the number of children in the country, and to improve the growth rate and the possibility of increasing the number of children. The above research results ("Demographic Structure and Growth: the effect of unfunded social security") are in full swing, and the academic journal Economics Letters has recently made a decision on how to do so. The annual academic paper "Spillover Effect of Population Aging, International Capital Flows, and Welfare" 62nd European Meeting of Econometric Society (Budapest 2007) won the honor of the H18 academic report meeting.