High-resolution probabilistic regional climate projections with emphasis on the interaction between farmland and atmosphere

该项目的主要目标是计算德国西南部至2030年期间的高分辨率区域气候预测。在中心模式域中，最大水平网格分辨率约为3公里，这样模式就可以显式地模拟深对流。根据最近的结果，这一方法将大大改进对大气变量日循环的表示，并减少模拟降水空间分布的系统误差。特别强调农田和大气之间的相互作用。为此，气候版的天气研究和预报模型(CWRF)和社区土地模型(CLM)将通过与作物模型Expert-N和模拟土地使用决策的多智能体系统(MAS)相结合来运作和改进。地面交换过程及其对对流层低层大气变量影响的模拟将通过为期两年的测量活动进行验证和优化，其中包括扫描激光雷达系统的操作。气候预测的不确定性将通过集合模拟进行评估。

The main goal of Project is the calculation of high-resolution regional climate projections focusing on SW-Germany for the time period until 2030. In the central model domain, the maximum horizontal grid resolution will be about three kilometers so that deep convection can explicitly be simulated by the model. Based on recent results this approach will lead to a significantly improved representation of the diurnal cycle of atmospheric variables and to a reduction of systematic errors in the simulation of the spatial distribution of precipitation. Special emphasis is placed on the interactions between farmland and atmosphere. To this end, the climate version of the Weather Research and Forecasting model (CWRF) coupled with the Community Land Model (CLM) will be operated and improved by integration with the crop model Expert-N and a multi-agent system (MAS), which simulates land use decisions. The simulation of surface exchange processes and of their impact on atmospheric variables in the lower troposphere will be validated and optimised by means of a two-year measurement campaign, which includes the operation of scanning lidar systems. The uncertainty of the climate projections will be assessed by ensemble simulations.