High-resolution probabilistic regional climate projections with emphasis on the interaction between farmland and atmosphere

高分辨率概率区域气候预测，重点关注农田和大气之间的相互作用

• 批准号: 82493194
• 负责人: Professor Dr. Volker Wulfmeyer
• 金额: --
• 依托单位: Institut für Physik und Meteorologie (120)
• 依托单位国家: 德国
• 项目类别: Research Grants
• 财政年份: 2008
• 资助国家: 德国
• 起止时间: 2007-12-31 至 2014-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://gepris.dfg.de/gepris/projekt/82493194?language=en
• 关键词: resolution; probabilistic; regional; climate; projections

The main goal of Project is the calculation of high-resolution regional climate projections focusing on SW-Germany for the time period until 2030. In the central model domain, the maximum horizontal grid resolution will be about three kilometers so that deep convection can explicitly be simulated by the model. Based on recent results this approach will lead to a significantly improved representation of the diurnal cycle of atmospheric variables and to a reduction of systematic errors in the simulation of the spatial distribution of precipitation. Special emphasis is placed on the interactions between farmland and atmosphere. To this end, the climate version of the Weather Research and Forecasting model (CWRF) coupled with the Community Land Model (CLM) will be operated and improved by integration with the crop model Expert-N and a multi-agent system (MAS), which simulates land use decisions. The simulation of surface exchange processes and of their impact on atmospheric variables in the lower troposphere will be validated and optimised by means of a two-year measurement campaign, which includes the operation of scanning lidar systems. The uncertainty of the climate projections will be assessed by ensemble simulations.

该项目的主要目标是计算高分辨率的区域气候预测，重点是德国西南部，直到2030年。在模式中心区域，最大水平网格分辨率约为3公里，这样模式就可以明确地模拟深对流。根据最近的结果，这种方法将导致一个显着改善的表示的大气变量的日周期和减少系统误差的模拟降水的空间分布。特别强调农田和大气之间的相互作用。为此，将通过与作物模型Expert-N和模拟土地使用决策的多代理系统相结合，操作和改进与社区土地模型相结合的天气研究和预报模型的气候版本。将通过为期两年的测量活动，包括扫描激光雷达系统的运行，验证和优化对地面交换过程及其对低对流层大气变量影响的模拟。气候预测的不确定性将通过集合模拟进行评估。