Mathematical approach to performance specifications of fire safety in an urban area

本文从性能指标的角度，分析了影响城市消防安全水平的主要因素，并提出了基于数学方法的城市消防安全水平评价方法。本研究的主要结果如下：（1）分析了火灾安全水平的变化及其主导因素，（2）建立了大地震后火灾发生的评估模型，并对火灾对策进行了评估，（3）提出了新的地震后火灾大区域疏散方案的方法，（4）从确保震后大面积疏散的安全水平出发，提出了城市消防安全水平的要求。

This study aims to identify the dominant factors for evaluating the level of fire safety in urban area from performance specifications point of view, and to make a proposal for evaluating the safety level based on mathematical approach. Principal results of this study are as follows ; (1) to analyze the transition of the level of fire safety and its dominant factors, (2) to develop the evaluation model of fire breakout after a big earthquake and to evaluate the countermeasure against fire breakouts, (3) to propose the method of the new wide area evacuation plan from post-earthquake fire, (4) required safety level of urban fire from securing safety level of wide area evacuation from post-earthquake fire.