Development of data assimilation method using laboratory experiments toward earthquake prediction

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Toward the prediction of earthquake generation, we are developing data assimilation systems in terms of laboratory analog earthquakes. The data assimilation is a method to estimate model parameters of a mechanical model describing earthquake generation processes by using observational data. The future of the system is forecasted based on this model. During the funded two years, we developed laboratory apparatus to obtain targeted data and numerical simulation codes to calculate the behavior of the mechanical model. We also modeled actual earthquake phenomena using the developed simulation codes.