Mercury rising – The effects of heat waves and extreme temperatures on mental health, cognition and local climate investments in countries of the Global South

该项目旨在回答热浪和极端温度如何影响心理健康和认知的问题，以及热浪是否也影响生活在低收入和中等收入国家（LMICs）的个人在气候适应措施方面的经济投资决策。随着全球气温持续上升，高温事件变得更加频繁和严重，了解它们影响人们生活和福祉的多种渠道至关重要。特别是，从社会和人道主义的角度来看，必须将研究重点转向中低收入国家，它们对气候变化的贡献最小，但受气候变化影响最严重。心理健康和认知对经济的长期发展至关重要。心理健康和认知与更高的人力资本和经济回报、对未来的预期以及储蓄、投资和经济决策的其他方面有关。因此，热浪可以通过影响心理健康和认知直接降低幸福感，也可以通过多种渠道直接或间接地恶化经济福祉。本项目旨在通过三个子项目来评估这些复杂的渠道。子项目1分析热浪如何影响心理困扰、焦虑和抑郁，并调查哪些人最容易受到不良心理健康影响。子项目2评估极端温度对成人认知能力的影响。子项目3研究热浪是否影响个人对气候适应措施的投资决策，以及这种关系是否由热浪引起的认知和精神障碍介导。本项目采用准实验和调查研究方法。子项目1和子项目2依赖于多个低收入国家的二次调查数据与基于卫星的热浪和其他气候条件（如湿度）数据的结合。子项目3依赖于实地的初步调查数据和投资游戏，这些数据将与通过传感器测量的观测温度和湿度数据相关联。该项目涵盖的国家包括中国、加纳、印度、墨西哥、南非和越南，这些国家代表了世界上人口最多的一些国家。因此，这个项目做出了三个贡献。首先，该项目将为热浪和极端温度对心理健康和认知的影响提供新的经验证据，以及这与全球南方背景下的气候投资决策之间的关系。其次，该项目将使用三种不同的准实验方法和来自初级和二级家庭调查的真实数据，从而能够得出因果证据。第三，通过结合来自全球南方多个国家的数据，该项目将得出结论和建议，这些结论和建议在外部对世界上很大一部分人口有效。

This project aims to answer the question of how heat waves and extreme temperatures affect mental health and cognition and whether heat waves also affect economic investment decisions in climate adaptation measures of individuals living in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). As global temperatures continue to rise and heat events become more frequent and severe, it is crucial to understand the multiple channels through which they will affect people's lives and well-being. In particular, it is imperative from a social and humanitarian perspective to shift the research focus towards LMICs, which contribute the least to climate change, but will be the most severely affected by it. Mental health and cognition are crucial for long-term economic development. Mental well-being and cognition relate to higher human capital and economic returns, expectations regarding the future and hence savings, investments and other dimensions of economic decisions. Hence, while heat waves could reduce well-being directly through impacts on mental health and cognition, directly and indirectly they could also deteriorate economic well-being through multiple channels. This project sets outs to assess these complex channels through three subprojects. Subproject 1 analyzes how heat waves affect psychological distress, anxiety and depression and investigates which individuals are most vulnerable to experiencing adverse mental health effects. Subproject 2 evaluates the effects of extreme temperatures on adults’ cognitive performance. Subproject 3 investigates whether heat waves affect individuals’ investment decisions for climate adaptation measures and whether this relationship is mediated by cognitive and mental impairments caused by heat. This project uses quasi-experimental and survey research methods. Subprojects 1 and 2 rely on the combination of secondary survey data from multiple LMICs with satellite-based data on heat waves and other climatic conditions, such as humidity. Subproject 3 relies on primary survey data and investment games in the field which will be linked to observational temperature and humidity data measured via sensors. The countries covered in this project encompass China, Ghana, India, Mexico, South Africa and Vietnam – representing some of the most populous countries in the world. Thereby, this project makes three contributions. First, this project will provide novel empirical evidence on the impact of heat waves and extreme temperatures on mental health and cognition and how this links to climate investment decisions in the context of the Global South. Second, this project will use three different quasi-experimental methods and real-life data from primary and secondary household surveys, and is thereby able to derive causal evidence. Third, by combining data from multiple countries of the Global South, this project will derive conclusions and recommendations that are externally valid for a large share of the world’s population.