A substantial approach to fault evolution model for advanced earthquake magnitude-frequency prediction

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The aim of this study to construct a new quantitative and objective Seismotectonic Province Map for the main islands of Japan. The resolution of the map is 10 km by 10 km grid of second order mesh of 1 : 25, 000 scale topographical map and the following principal component parameters as Bouger gravity anomaly, the width of the seismogenic layer, distribution of active faults and observed seismicity executes are assigned to each grid for principal component analysis. Quantitative classifications, the cluster analysis is applied for the result of the principal component analysis and several number of division is compared from a viewpoint of geological and geophysical propriety. In order to assign the maximum blind earthquake magnitude in each tectonic province derived from cluster analysis mentioned above, historical earthquake records and the knick point of the cumulative frequency of fault length. The result shows several tectonic provinces have a potential that expected magnitude is+ 0. 2 larger than the result of current seismic hazard assessment.