Degree of Experience proposed for Flood Frequency Analysis in Coastal Area Degree of Experience proposed for Flood Frequency Analysis in Coastal Area Degree of Experience proposed for Flood Frequency Analysis in Coastal Area

外推法在评估极端海况频率中起着至关重要的作用，因此引入了回归期的概念。但我们在使用回归期（或外推）时没有意识到其中隐藏的双重含义。在处理过去记录时所使用的报表期间，代替未来即将发生的连续事件的期间。我们可以通过对过去几年观测数据的外推得到ce（回归水平）的设计，而我们应该通过对实时的扩展来应用于未来，这是另一种外推。我们应该注意到通过引入重要的参数：经验程度和持久性来扩展回报水平估计的局限性。

Extrapolation plays an essential role for evaluating sea extremes frequencies, which is why the concept of return period has been in troduced. But we use the return period(or the extrapolation) with out being aware of the hidden double meanings. The return period employed in handling the past record is substituted for the period of the coming successive event in the future. We can obtain the design for ce(the return level) by extrapolation of the observed data in the past years, while we should apply it for the future by the extension over the real time, which is ano ther extrapolation. We should notice the limitations for extending the return level's estimation, by in troducing the important in dices : the degree of experience and the durability.