Degree of Experience proposed for Flood Frequency Analysis in Coastal Area Degree of Experience proposed for Flood Frequency Analysis in Coastal Area Degree of Experience proposed for Flood Frequency Analysis in Coastal Area

外推法对于评估海洋极端事件频率起着至关重要的作用，这就是为什么引入重现期的概念。但我们使用回归期（或外推法），却没有意识到隐藏的双重含义。在处理过去记录时所用的重现期被未来相继事件的重现期所取代。我们可以通过对过去几年的观测数据进行外推来获得对ce（收益水平）的设计，而对未来的设计则需要通过在真实的时间上进行延拓，即另一种外推。通过对经验程度和持久性这两个重要因素的介绍，我们应该注意到扩展收益水平估计的局限性。

Extrapolation plays an essential role for evaluating sea extremes frequencies, which is why the concept of return period has been in troduced. But we use the return period(or the extrapolation) with out being aware of the hidden double meanings. The return period employed in handling the past record is substituted for the period of the coming successive event in the future. We can obtain the design for ce(the return level) by extrapolation of the observed data in the past years, while we should apply it for the future by the extension over the real time, which is ano ther extrapolation. We should notice the limitations for extending the return level's estimation, by in troducing the important in dices : the degree of experience and the durability.