Degree of Experience proposed for Flood Frequency Analysis in Coastal Area Degree of Experience proposed for Flood Frequency Analysis in Coastal Area Degree of Experience proposed for Flood Frequency Analysis in Coastal Area

外推在估计极值频率中起着至关重要的作用，这就是为什么重现期的概念被引入的原因。但我们使用重现期(或外推)时，并没有意识到隐藏的双重含义。用于处理过去记录的返回期间被替换为未来连续事件的期间。我们可以通过对过去几年的观测数据进行外推来获得Ce(返回水平)的设计，而对于未来，我们应该通过对实时的延伸来应用它，这是另一种外推。我们应该注意到扩展收益水平估计的局限性，引入了重要的骰子：经验度和耐久性。

Extrapolation plays an essential role for evaluating sea extremes frequencies, which is why the concept of return period has been in troduced. But we use the return period(or the extrapolation) with out being aware of the hidden double meanings. The return period employed in handling the past record is substituted for the period of the coming successive event in the future. We can obtain the design for ce(the return level) by extrapolation of the observed data in the past years, while we should apply it for the future by the extension over the real time, which is ano ther extrapolation. We should notice the limitations for extending the return level's estimation, by in troducing the important in dices : the degree of experience and the durability.