Quantitative Economic Analysis on Food Price Increase and LDC's correspondences

本文运用定量经济模型和水资源模型分析了粮价高企下该地区粮食增产前景。并对提高贫困人口收入和减少贫困的可能性进行了探讨。在这个项目中，我们估计了柬埔寨和老挝的投入产出表，这些数据是我们研究中不可缺少的。利用这些数据，我们分析了产业结构和国际贸易结构，并对这些结构与经济发展阶段的关系进行了思考。此外，通过构建国际通用的区域一般均衡模型，明确了农业部门生产率的影响。农业部门生产力的提高对于改善粮食生产以及这些地区的整体经济发展非常重要。我们还确定了该地区未来的供水不会短缺，但随着农业生产的增加和经济发展带来的生活方式的改变，可能会出现水质问题。

In this study, we analyze the prospect of food production increase in this area under the high grain price hike by the quantitative economic model and water resource model. The possibility of income increase of poor people and the poverty reduction are also discussed. During this project, we estimated Input output tables for Cambodia and Lao, which data are indispensable for our study. Using these data, we analyze structure of industrial and international trade, then took some consideration on the relation between these structure and the stage of economic development. In addition, we clarify the impact of productivity in agricultural sector by constructing international applied general equilibrium model of the region. Productivity increase in agricultural sector is important for improving food production as well as the overall economic development in these area. We also made certain that water supply in this area will not be short of in future, but may cause quality problem of water with increasing agricultural production and the change in life style due to the economic development.