Role of self-knowledge on future prediction and moderation by temporal distance

十个实验考察了时间距离是否能调节自我认知对一个人未来预测的影响。结果表明，自我概念的激活影响了对时间遥远事件的未来预测，而自传体记忆的提取则影响了对最近事件的预测。它验证了识解水平理论，但也确定了制约条件。限制条件的存在有三个含义。首先，不同知识的使用可能会导致不同水平的解读。其次，未来的预测可能是一个明确的过程。第三，自尊的信息价值可能较低。

Ten experiments investigated whether temporal distance could moderate the effect of self-knowledge on one's future prediction. Results show that the activation of self-concept influenced future predictions about temporally distant events, whereas the retrieving of autobiographical memories influenced those about proximal events. It validated the construal level theory but also identified the restricting conditions. The existence of restricting conditions has three implications. First, the use of different knowledge might lead to different level of construals. Second, future prediction might be an explicit process. Third, the information value of self-esteem might be low.