Critical transitions in biodiversity: From foundations to detections and warning

直接和间接的人为压力，如碎片化、开采、污染和气候变化，极大地改变了全球和当地的生物多样性。要减缓进一步的变化，需要了解生物多样性对这些压力反应的不连续性。然而，我们缺乏对关键转变是否会导致前所未有的生物多样性丧失或向群落和区域物种池的新组成转变的根本理解，以及存在哪些早期预警信号以触发监管反应。在这个项目中，我们连续在三个工作包(WP)中解决这个问题。WP1将调查不同学科(物理、数学、工程、生态学)是如何对过渡进行概念化的。将对这些不同概念在生物多样性变化方面的应用进行系统的文献审查，以评估其适用性和有效性。WP2使用模拟和真实数据(后者来自泛欧鱼类和大型无脊椎动物数据网络)，以评估关键转变如何被检测到，它们如何被物种中的多个反馈和交错(时间延迟)反应所掩盖，以及WP1的哪种方法为关键生物多样性转变的发生和定位提供了最可靠的估计。最后，WP 3将利用信息价值(VOI)理论的最新改进，将这些对阈值越界的估计与决策联系起来，目的是确定海洋生物多样性养护地区的优先顺序。VOI评估和量化额外数据或洞察力对决策的益处，冒着延误导致环境状况进一步恶化的风险。目前的项目在如何预测和防止生物多样性不成比例的变化这一高度相关的问题上，将来自广泛学科的专业知识结合在一起是独一无二的。

Global and local biodiversity are massively altered by direct and indirect anthropogenic pressures such as fragmentation, exploitation, pollution, and climate change. Mitigating further transformation requires knowledge of discontinuities in the biodiversity response to these pressures. Yet we lack fundamental understanding if critical transitions prevail leading to unprecedented biodiversity loss or shifts towards novel compositions of communities and regional species pools and what early warning signals exist in order to trigger a regulatory response. In this project, we consecutively address this question in three workpackages (WPs). WP1 will survey how transitions are conceptualized in different disciplines (physics, math, engineering, ecology). A systematic literature review on the application of these different concepts in the context of biodiversity change will be conducted to assess their suitability and effectiveness. WP2 uses simulated and real data (the latter from a pan-European network on fish and macroinvertebrate data) to assess how well critical transitions can be detected, how they might be masked by multiple feedbacks and staggered (time-delayed) responses in species, and which of the methods from WP1 gives most reliable estimates for the occurrence and positioning of critical biodiversity transitions. Finally, WP 3 will leverage recent improvements in the Value of Information (VOI) theory to link these estimates of threshold transgressions to decision making with the aim of prioritizing areas for marine biodiversity conservation. VOI assesses and quantifies the benefits of additional data or insights for decision making, at the risk of delays leading to more deteriorated status of the environment. The current project is unique in binding expertise from a wide range of disciplines towards the highly relevant question of how to predict and prevent disproportionate changes in biodiversity.