Stochastic forecast of pension finance in Japan

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At first, this research aimed at calculating confidence intervals for financial forecast of public pension schemes in Japan, using stochastic forecast of population in the future obtained in Okita, Pfau and Long (2011). However, due to the expected change of systems under the “Tax and Social Security Reform” including consumption tax rate raise, it became difficult to lay down solid assumptions for the calculation. Thus, we modified our topic within the theme to include stochastic analyses of pension finance. These are the studies of optimal international diversification of investment portfolios in pension schemes of emerging economies. We further studied cash transfer program for school attendance program as an alternative for poverty reduction through welfare programs for elderly.