A policy simulation study on robust compact city strategy under DISURBANIZATION stage with shrinking depopulation period in JAPAN

本研究提出了降低紧凑型城市对自然灾害的脆弱性的措施，同时确保其在去城市化时代的恢复能力，重点关注人工和社会环境。在人工环境下，该研究通过分析经济变量的面板数据来估算自然灾害的直接和间接经济损失。分析显示，自然灾害发生后，城市面临的人口流动性越大，其恢复能力（当地经济的恢复能力）就越弱。此外，该研究重点关注影响人口流动的社会环境组成部分，即社会资本，提出了实现弹性城市的方法。

This study presented measures to reduce vulnerability of compact cities to natural disasters while securing their resilience in the age of deurbanization with focus on the artificial and social environments. In case of the artificial environment, the study estimated direct and indirect economic loss of natural disasters by analyzing panel data with economic variables. The analysis revealed that the more population mobility cities face after natural disasters, the weaker resilience (recovery capacity in local economy) will they get. Moreover, with focus on the components of the social environment, meaning, social capital that influence on population mobility, the study proposed ways to make resilient cities come true.