A policy simulation study on robust compact city strategy under DISURBANIZATION stage with shrinking depopulation period in JAPAN

本研究提出了减少紧凑型城市对自然灾害脆弱性的措施，同时确保其在去城市化时代的复原力，重点关注人工和社会环境。在人工环境下，通过分析带有经济变量的面板数据，估算自然灾害的直接和间接经济损失。分析表明，自然灾害发生后，人口流动性越大的城市，其恢复力（当地经济的恢复能力）越弱。此外，本研究从影响人口流动的社会环境、意义、社会资本等要素出发，提出了实现弹性城市的途径。

This study presented measures to reduce vulnerability of compact cities to natural disasters while securing their resilience in the age of deurbanization with focus on the artificial and social environments. In case of the artificial environment, the study estimated direct and indirect economic loss of natural disasters by analyzing panel data with economic variables. The analysis revealed that the more population mobility cities face after natural disasters, the weaker resilience (recovery capacity in local economy) will they get. Moreover, with focus on the components of the social environment, meaning, social capital that influence on population mobility, the study proposed ways to make resilient cities come true.