Complexity in climate impact assessment: a methodology to address extremes

气候影响评估的复杂性：应对极端情况的方法

• 批准号: FF0348550
• 负责人: Prof Amanda Lynch
• 金额: $ 103.35万
• 依托单位: Monash University
• 依托单位国家: 澳大利亚
• 项目类别: Federation Fellowships
• 财政年份: 2004
• 资助国家: 澳大利亚
• 起止时间: 2004-01-02 至 2008-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://dataportal.arc.gov.au/RGS/Web/Grants/FF0348550
• 关键词: Complexity; climate; impact; assessment; methodology

It is something of a truism that the events and states of the changing environment that affect society tend to fall in the extremes. My goal is to develop a model-based methodology to characterize the extremes that are not usually predicted by climate models. Key extremes of importance to stakeholders in Australia and around the world include coastal flooding and fire. These events, in the context of regional climate variation, will act as test cases for the methodology. From this work, the likelihood of policy-relevant events in the future can be evaluated, with a robust assessment of the uncertainty.

影响社会的环境变化的事件和状态往往会走向极端，这是不言而喻的。我的目标是开发一种基于模型的方法来描述气候模型通常无法预测的极端情况。对澳大利亚和世界各地的利益相关者来说，重要的关键极端事件包括沿海洪水和火灾。在区域气候变化的背景下，这些事件将作为该方法的测试案例。通过这项工作，可以评估未来发生政策相关事件的可能性，并对不确定性进行可靠的评估。