Climate Change Impact on Midlatitude Cyclone Intensity, Tracks, and Impacts (CLIM-CITI)

气候变化对中纬度气旋强度、路径和影响的影响 (CLIM-CITI)

• 批准号: NE/Y001273/1
• 负责人: Jennifer Catto
• 金额: $ 86.55万
• 依托单位: UNIVERSITY OF EXETER
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Research Grant
• 财政年份: 2024
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2024 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 未结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=NE%2FY001273%2F1
• 关键词: Climate; Change; Impact; Midlatitude; Cyclone

Extratropical cyclones (ETCs), also known as midlatitude storms or windstorms, in the Northern Hemisphere typically track across the North Pacific into the US and across the North Atlantic into Europe. The storms that track into Europe cause billions of Euros of damage each year due to their strong winds and heavy rain. Our current best estimates of how these European storms will change in the future are very uncertain, meaning that it is difficult for governments and industry to make decisions about how to adapt to potential future changes. The state-of-the-art climate models we use to make projections have improved over the past 20 years or so, but they still struggle to correctly represent the midlatitude storms and where they track. In this project we want to take a new approach to the evaluation of these climate models in order to gain deeper understanding of the reliable aspects of the models, the relevance of model grid-spacing, what needs to be improved through further model development, and how we can use this insight to make better future projections. We cannot simply wait for the next generation of higher-resolution climate models and hope for the storm tracks to be better represented. This approach will consider the ways in which the storms develop and become stronger, allowing us to group similar storms for analysis. The ambitious approach is now possible due to (1) an increase in the number of variables available from the most recent climate model simulations, and (2) the combined expertise of the project investigators. The outcomes of this project will inform model development efforts, and have the potential to provide a mechanism for more optimally combining the future projections of different climate models in order to have better confidence in these future projections. We will discuss with the Environment Agency to ensure the results can be useful to their efforts to improve climate resilience and enhance disaster risk management. We will also discuss our results with reinsurance companies who are considering the impacts of climate change on the vulnerability of their property portfolios.

在北方半球，热带气旋（ETC），也被称为中纬度风暴或风暴，通常穿过北太平洋进入美国，穿过北大西洋进入欧洲。进入欧洲的风暴每年因强风和大雨造成数十亿欧元的损失。我们目前对这些欧洲风暴未来将如何变化的最佳估计非常不确定，这意味着政府和行业很难就如何适应未来潜在的变化做出决定。我们用来预测的最先进的气候模型在过去20年左右的时间里已经有所改进，但它们仍然难以正确地表示中纬度风暴及其轨迹。在这个项目中，我们希望采取一种新的方法来评估这些气候模型，以便更深入地了解模型的可靠性，模型网格间距的相关性，通过进一步的模型开发需要改进的内容，以及我们如何利用这种洞察力来做出更好的未来预测。我们不能简单地等待下一代更高分辨率的气候模型，并希望风暴轨迹能得到更好的表现。这种方法将考虑风暴发展和变得更强的方式，使我们能够将类似的风暴分组进行分析。由于（1）最新气候模型模拟中可用变量的数量增加，以及（2）项目调查人员的综合专业知识，这一雄心勃勃的方法现在成为可能。该项目的成果将为模型开发工作提供信息，并有可能提供一种机制，以更好地结合不同气候模型的未来预测，从而提高对这些未来预测的信心。我们将与环境署进行讨论，以确保研究结果有助于他们提高气候适应力和加强灾害风险管理的努力。我们还将与正在考虑气候变化对其房地产投资组合脆弱性的影响的再保险公司讨论我们的结果。