Exchange rate regime choice and economic performances: An empirical study using microeconometric methods

本研究利用微观计量经济学方法评估汇率制度对经济绩效的影响。特别是，我使用匹配方法调查了实际汇率制度与已宣布的制度的偏差是否会影响货币危机的发生。我发现，与实行其他汇率政策的国家相比，实行始终如一的盯住汇率政策的国家(即各国实际上采取已宣布的盯住汇率制度的政策)发生货币危机的可能性要低得多。更有趣的是，我发现，与那些害怕宣布盯住汇率政策的国家相比，实行始终如一盯住汇率政策的国家发生货币危机的可能性要低得多。因此，我从统计数据上证实，实际汇率制度与已宣布的制度的偏差对货币危机的发生有重大影响。

This study evaluates the effects of exchange rate regimes on economic performances using microeconometric methods. Especially, I investigate whether deviations of actual exchange rate regimes from announced regimes affect the occurrence of currency crises using matching methods. I find that countries with consistent pegs (i.e., a policy in which countries actually adopt announced pegged regimes) have a significantly lower probability of currency crises than countries with other exchange rate policies. More interestingly, I find that countries with consistent pegs have a significantly lower probability of currency crises than those with a fear of announcing a peg policy (i.e., a policy in which countries actually adopt pegged regimes but do not claim to have pegged regimes). Therefore, I statistically confirm that deviations of actual exchange rate regimes from announced regimes significantly affect the occurrence of currency crises.