The verification of precipitation forecasts from numerical models on short time-scales over Germany with pattern-oriented error measures

采用面向模式的误差测量方法验证德国短时间尺度数值模型的降水预报

• 批准号: 5426002
• 负责人: Professor Dr. Heini Wernli
• 金额: --
• 依托单位: Institut für Atmosphäre und Klima
• 依托单位国家: 德国
• 项目类别: Priority Programmes
• 财政年份: 2004
• 资助国家: 德国
• 起止时间: 2003-12-31 至 2010-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://gepris.dfg.de/gepris/projekt/5426002?language=en
• 关键词: verification; precipitation; forecasts; numerical; models

The verification of precipitation forecasts from numerical models is essential for the future improvement of quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPF). There are various options when defining a QPF verification strategy, concerning for instance the temporal resolution, the choice of the evaluation data set, the verification domains, the weather-type stratification and the applied error measures. In this project new techniques will be developed to verify QPFs from the weather prediction models LM, GME and ECMWF over Germany on very short time scales (typically 1 hour). A currently developed technique is used to derive an evaluation data set of hourly precipitation analyses from rain-gouge measurements and radar composites. The verifications will be done for the catchment areas of the major river systems and the QPFs will be categorized into different synoptic weather patterns. Finally, new error measures will be implemented that consider the spatial patterns of precipitation, in contrast to more traditional measures that evaluate the similarity of two fields on a point-by-point basis. Such an pattern-oriented approach provides novel and meaningful information about the qualities and deficiencies of a particular QPF. The results will be directly useful for the interpretation of model output in operational weather forecasting and for their quantitative use in impact applications such as runoff forecasting.

数值模式降水预报的检验是未来定量降水预报(QPF)改进的关键。在定义QPF验证策略时有各种选项，例如，涉及时间分辨率、评估数据集的选择、验证域、天气类型分层和所应用的误差措施。在这个项目中，将开发新的技术来在很短的时间尺度(通常为1小时)上验证来自德国上空的天气预报模式LM、GME和ECMWF的QPF。目前开发的一种技术被用来从雨泥测量和雷达合成中得出每小时降水分析的评估数据集。将对主要河流水系的集水区进行核实，并将水质管制区划分为不同的天气类型。最后，将采用考虑降水空间模式的新误差措施，而不是更传统的逐点评估两个场的相似性的措施。这种面向模式的方法提供了有关特定QPF的质量和缺陷的新颖而有意义的信息。其结果将直接有助于在业务天气预报中对模式输出的解释，以及在径流预报等影响应用中的定量使用。