Uncertainty and the bioeconomics of near-natural silviculture

“营林”和“森林经济学”的研究通常是相互独立进行的。虽然森林栽培学主要关注生态方面，但森林经济学有时非常理论。应用的生物经济学模型往往缺乏生物现实主义。通过调查混交林，这项提议试图改进生物经济模型，并在不确定的情况下进行优化。对这一假设进行了检验，即相互作用的树种和风险整合的生物经济模型是否会隐含地导致接近自然的林业。在第一部分中，对林分水平上相互依赖的树种混合的经济后果进行了建模。这一部分基于已发表的文献、改进的木材质量模型和现有的打捞收获数据。然后，将为混交林开发一个随年龄存活的模型。然后，第二部分以第一部分中产生的数据为基础，集中于同时优化物种比例和收获年龄。它从均值-方差优化开始，作为参考解决方案。将所得结果与随机优势、下行风险和信息缺口稳健性等其他方法得到的数据进行了比较。

Research in ‘silviculture’ and ‘forest economics’ very often takes place largely independent from each other. While silviculture predominantly focuses on ecological aspects, forest eco-nomics is sometimes very theoretic. The applied bioeconomic models often lack biological realism. Investigating mixed forests this proposal tries to improve bioeconomic modelling and optimisation under uncertainty. The hypothesis is tested whether or not bioeconomic model-ling of interacting tree species and risk integration would implicitly lead to close-to-nature forestry. In a first part, economic consequences of interdependent tree species mixed at the stand level are modelled. This part is based on published literature, an improved model of timber quality and existing data on salvage harvests. A model of survival over age is then to be developed for mixed stands. A second section then builds upon data generated in part one and concentrates on the simultaneous optimisation of species proportions and harvest-ing ages. It starts with a mean-variance optimisation as a reference solution. The obtained results are compared with data from alternative approaches as stochastic dominance, down-side risk and information-gap robustness.