Analysing silvicultural alternatives to clear-cutting based on updated bio-economic models and new approaches to uncertainty

世界各地都在实行轮作森林管理和全面砍伐相结合的做法。然而，一些先进的生物经济模型显示，从经济角度来看，完全砍伐的替代方案是有利的选择，例如在斯堪的纳维亚的条件下。然而，即使是这些先进的方法也有它们的问题，因为它们不适应更复杂的森林结构，并且假设了完美的信息。为了改进对森林砍伐替代方案的生物经济分析，拟议的研究打算更新现有的林分水平生物经济模型，并测试针对不确定性的稳健建模方法。在第二部分中，基于大小类或单树的优化旨在与适当的风险建模相结合。该提案解决了两个首要问题：1。在不断变化的气候条件下树木生存和生长的新信息将如何影响替代造林的经济评价？2. 如何将解决方案的鲁棒性作为目标集成到优化方法中？

Rotation forest management in combination with a clear-cutting is practiced worldwide. However, some advanced bio-economic models reveal alternatives to clear-cutting as the advantageous options from an economic point of view, for example under Scandinavian conditions. Even these advanced approaches have their problems, though, because they are not adapted to more complex forest structures and assume perfect information. In an attempt to improve the bio-economic analysis of silvicultural alternatives to clear-cutting the proposed research intends to update existing stand-level bio-economic models and to test robust modelling approaches to uncertainty. In a second part, optimization based on size classes or single trees is intended to be coupled with an appropriate risk modelling. The proposal addresses two overarching questions: 1. How will new information on tree survival and growth under chang-ing climatic conditions impact the economic evaluation of silvicultural alternatives? 2. How may the robustness of solutions be integrated as an objective into optimization approaches?