Seed dispersal, migration and climate induced Range Shifts of plant species

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Changes in the global climate are seriously affecting biodiversity on a global scale. For Central Europe it was estimated that vegetation belts may shift up to several 100 km within the next decades (= potential range shift of the species). However, there is currently no information available if species can migrate fast enough to follow the potential range shifts. The main aim of this project is to predict realized range shifts for many (> 1000) Central European plant species in a modeling framework based on1. Shifts of potential species ranges derived from global change-driven ecological niche models 2. Seed dispersal kernels generated by process-based simulation models for anemochory, zoochory and dispersal by humans3. Migration rates based on seed dispersal kernels and demographic parameters4. Realized range shifts based on the current distribution and migration rates of the species The potential range shifts will be compared with realized range shifts for several IPCC scenarios and consequences for biodiversity will be analyzed.