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Analysis for nonlinear epidemics among children and prevention strategy based on economical views using by visulalized modeling methods

可视化建模方法基于经济学观点的儿童非线性流行病分析及防治策略

基本信息

批准号：
09557205
负责人：
HINO Shigeo
金额：
$ 7.42万
依托单位：
TOTTORI UNIVERSITY
依托单位国家：
日本
项目类别：
Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B)
财政年份：
1997
资助国家：
日本
起止时间：
1997 至 1999
项目状态：
已结题

项目摘要

Recently, national immunization program has been changed on Rubella, one of target infectious diseases among national Surveillance for infectious diseases. So, current population are immunized by two different vaccination policy. Suyama et al.showd the utility of mixtured immunological strategy.Furthermore, Suyama et al.performed some cost beneficial analysis using the data of national surveillance. Two different Immunization program were compared with that analysis. If current vaccination program are completed, national control For rubella infection, especially, Congenital Rubella Syndrome, may be successful. That cost beneficial rate versus New MMR vaccination program will be 0.5.Takai et al.developed the remote controlled database system, and that system is internet reachable. Administrative staffs Can identify the current epidemic status using by this system. Yonezawa et al.also evaluate the nonlinear phenomenon of Rubella / Measles epidemics. He found the nonlinear nature in those epidemic and also found the complexity, especially Chaotic nature.Inoue et al.created the wolrd wide opened WWW system for analysis on national surveillance data system.Hasegawa et al.made a new alarming indecies for those infectious diseases and presented those indecies on his Institutional WWW homepage.Our effort of easy access for surveillance server is very useful for decision making for national vaccination program.

近年来，国家将风疹作为传染病监测的目标传染病，对国家免疫规划进行了调整。因此，目前的人群通过两种不同的疫苗接种政策进行免疫。Suyama等介绍了混合免疫策略的实用性，并利用全国监测数据进行了成本效益分析。并对两种免疫方案进行了比较分析。如果目前的疫苗接种计划完成，国家控制风疹感染，特别是先天性风疹综合征，可能是成功的。与新MMR疫苗接种计划相比，成本效益率为0.5。Takai等人开发了远程控制数据库系统，该系统可通过互联网访问。管理人员可以通过该系统识别当前的疫情状态。Yonezawa等人还评价了风疹/麻疹流行的非线性现象。他发现了这些流行病的非线性本质，也发现了其复杂性，特别是混沌性。Inoue等人创建了世界范围内开放的WWW系统，用于分析国家监测数据系统。Hasegawa等人对这些传染病提出了新的警报指数，并将这些指数放在他的机构WWW主页上。我们为监测服务器提供了方便的访问，这对国家疫苗接种计划的决策非常有用。