Earthquake Prediction Study by Geochemical Methods in Greece

据报道，希腊物理学家小组成功地通过电磁观测手段预测了地震的发生。而日本、中国和俄罗斯在地震前或地震时经常观测到地下水异常。本研究的目的是试图探测希腊多次出现电磁异常的地下水异常，并弄清地震前兆的机制。1998年，我们沿着Atalanti活动断裂在Atalanti 2井(深111米，屏蔽度66-105米)上安装了连续的氡监测系统，1893年5月23日(6.3级)和1894年4月27日(7.2级)在那里发生了大地震，造成了大量人员伤亡。我们的系统包括一个用于从地下水中提取可溶气体的水-气分离器模块，一个用于测量氡的Lucas电池连接的闪烁计数器和一个记录器。1999年，我们分别在阿塔兰蒂断层上阿塔兰蒂2号井以西10公里和50公里处的阿塔兰蒂3号井(深150米，死亡筛102-132米)和卡梅纳·沃拉(自喷)井安装了相同的系统。这个系统有时不起作用，是由于卢卡斯电池及其周围管道中的水凝结造成的。因此，我们于1999年3月在所有系统中安装了水分离设备。在我们的观测期间，1998年10月16日、12月16日和21日在阿塔兰蒂2号井记录到了可能与附近小规模地震(M2.8-3.2)有关的Rn浓度变化。我们还对发生火山地震的尼西罗斯火山的瓦斯温度进行了连续测量。此外，我们还从俯冲构造的角度研究了地下水和深层天然气的化学和同位素特征。

It is reported that Greek physicists group has succeeded to predict occurrences of earthquakes by means of electro-magnetic observations. While, groundwater anomalies prior to or at the time of earthquakes were often observed in Japan, China and Russia. The aim of this study is to try to detect the groundwater anomalies in Greece where the electro-magnetic anomalies appeared many times, and to make clear the mechanism of the earthquake precursors. In 1998, we we installed a continuous Rn monitoring system at Atalanti No.2 well (111m deep with a screen of 66-105m denth) along the Atalanti active fault, where big earthquakes took place on May 23, 1893 (M 6.3) and on April 27, 1894 (M 7.2) with a lot of human victims. Our system consists of a water-gas separator module to extract soluble gases from groundwater, a Lucas cell-attached scintillation counter for Rn measurement and a recorder. In 1999, we installed the same systems at Atalanti No.3 well (150m deep with a screen of 102-132m death) and at Kamena Volla (self-spouting) well, 10km and 50km west of the Atalanti No.2 well along the Atalanti fault, respectively. This system sometimes didn't work, caused by water condensation in the Lucas cell and its surrounding tubes. So, we attached a water separation apparatus in all systems in March 1999. During our observation periods, Rn concentration changes possibly associated with small scale of nearby earthquakes (M2.8-3.2) were recorded on Oct.16, Dec.16 and Dec.21, 1998, at Atalanti No.2 well. We have also carried out continuous measurement of fumarolic gas temperature at Nysiros volcano, where volcanic earthquakes were taking place. In addition, we have investigated chemical and isotope features of groundwater and deep gas in view point of subduction tectonics.