Age, period, and cohort effects on gender differences in alcohol use and alcohol use disorders in 47 national, longitudinally-followed cohorts

年龄、时期和队列对酒精使用和酒精使用障碍的性别差异的影响 全国性的、受人关注的队列 项目摘要： 现有证据表明，在整个生命过程中，酒精使用和酒精使用障碍的性别模式 正在趋同;然而，（a）这种趋同是否取决于发展阶段，（B）是否由于 与男性相比，女性的增长速度更快，或者相反，男性的下降速度更快 与妇女相比，（c）为什么会发生这种情况，这一切仍然没有得到充分的理解-这是一个关键的问题， 知识差距。事实上，干预和预防工作需要了解趋同是否 仅限于某些年龄组，最关键的是，为什么会发生。此外，饮酒的潜在增加， 妇女预示着潜在的公共卫生危机，需要准确预测未来的负担。没有这种 信息、干预和预防工作可能会放错地方，把重点放在错误的年龄组上，或者 错误的中介因素。只有历史上和发展上都有足够变化的数据才能回答 关于减少酒精相关结果的性别差异的基本问题。从一个 从生命过程的角度来看，本项目将利用通过监测收集的47个纵向队列， 未来（MTF）项目，从1976年到2022年，并应用严格的年龄-时期-队列增长曲线模型 阐明：在历史上，从18岁到45岁， 已经趋同;性别模式如何趋同（即，由于女性人数增加，男性人数增加） 减少，或两者兼而有之），以及性别模式趋同的原因。为了确定为什么我们要检查一个 一系列前所未有的潜在中介因素，包括角色转变的社会学趋势（婚姻， 父母身份、教育、居住独立和就业）、性别和社会态度，以及 心理因素（饮酒态度和原因，未来的伙伴关系和父母身份的意图，养育子女 婚姻满意度）。我们将采用严格的年龄段队列增长模型来实现三个目标： (1)测试何时在历史时间和在什么发展年龄的性别模式在酒精消费，狂欢 饮酒和酒精使用障碍症状正在收敛或已经收敛;（2）预测未来的公共卫生 酒精消费负担，酗酒，酒精使用障碍症状和（3）分析社会学， 心理和态度因素作为跨历史时期性别趋同的潜在中介， 发育年龄中介将估计与流行病学应用开发的新方法 克服了以前方法中有问题的假设。MTF数据一直是 40多年来有关物质使用的信息;迄今为止，研究还没有被用来检查年龄- 酒精消费性别差异的时期队列趋势。什么时候，如何，为什么性别差异 酒精消费量在生命过程和世代之间都有所不同，这是一个重要的差距。 文献;我们提出的MTF数据的使用是一个开创性的贡献。

Age, period, and cohort effects on gender differences in alcohol use and alcohol use disorders in 47 national, longitudinally-followed cohorts Project abstract: Available evidence suggests that, across the lifecourse, gender patterns in alcohol use and alcohol use disorders are converging; however, (a) whether this convergence depends on developmental stage, (b) whether it is due to more rapid increases among women compared with men or, conversely, more rapid decreases among men compared with women, and (c) why it is happening all remain inadequately understood - representing a critical knowledge gap. Indeed, intervention and prevention efforts require information about whether convergence is limited to certain age groups, and most critically, why they occur. Further, potential increases in drinking among women portend a potential public health crisis, requiring accurate forecasting of future burden. Without such information, intervention and prevention efforts can be misplaced, focusing on the wrong age groups, or the wrong mediating factors. Only data with sufficient variation both historically and developmentally can answer foundational questions about diminishing gender differences in alcohol-related outcomes. Drawing from a lifecourse perspective, the present project will leverage 47 longitudinal cohorts collected through the Monitoring the Future (MTF) project, from 1976 through 2022, and apply rigorous age-period-cohort growth curve modeling to illuminate: when in historical time and during what developmental periods from ages 18 to 45 gender patterns have been converging; how gender patterns are converging (i.e. because women are increasing, men are decreasing, or both), and why gender patterns are converging. To determine why we will examine an unprecedented array of potential mediating factors including sociological trends in role transitions (marriage, parenthood, education, residential independence, and employment), gender and societal attitudes, and psychological factors (drinking attitudes and reasons, future intentions for partnership and parenthood, parenting and marriage satisfaction). We will employ rigorous age-period-cohort growth models to accomplish three aims: (1) Test when in historical time and at what developmental age gender patterns in alcohol consumption, binge drinking, and alcohol use disorder symptoms are converging or have converged; (2) Forecast future public health burden of alcohol consumption, binge drinking, and alcohol use disorder symptoms and (3) Analyze sociological, psychological, and attitudinal factors as potential mediators of gender convergences across historical time and developmental age. Mediation will be estimated with novel methods developed for epidemiological applications that overcome problematic assumptions of previous approaches. MTF data have been a key source of information on substance use for more than four decades; studies have not to date been used to examine age- period-cohort trends in gender differences in alcohol consumption. When, how, and why gender differences in alcohol consumption vary across both the lifecourse and generations represents an important gap in the literature; our proposed use of MTF data stands to be a seminal contribution.