Age, period, and cohort effects on gender differences in alcohol use and alcohol use disorders in 47 national, longitudinally-followed cohorts

年龄、时期和队列对 47 个国家纵向跟踪队列中饮酒和酒精使用障碍性别差异的影响

• 批准号: 9919505
• 负责人: Justin O Jager
• 金额: $ 38.01万
• 依托单位: COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY HEALTH SCIENCES
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 财政年份: 2018
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2018-08-01 至 2023-04-30
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://reporter.nih.gov/project-details/9919505
• 关键词: Address; Adolescence; Adult; Affect; Age; Alcohol abuse; Alcohol consumption; Alcohol or Other Drugs use; Alcohols; Attention; Attitude; Child Rearing; Cohort Effect; Collaborations; Consumption; Data; Development; Diagnosis; Education; Employment; Epidemiology; Etiology; Female; Female Adolescents; Foundations; Future; Gender; Generations; Growth; Health; Health Campaign; Improve Access; Intervention; Knowledge; Life Cycle Stages; Literature; Longitudinal cohort; Marriage; Measurement; Mediating; Mediation; Mediator of activation protein; Methods; Modeling; Monitor; Outcome; Pattern; Prevention; Principal Investigator; Psychological Factors; Public Health; Public Health Practice; Recording of previous events; Research; Research Personnel; Resources; Risk; Role; Science; Seminal; Services; Societies; Sociology; Source; Symptoms; System; Testing; Time; Variant; Virginia; Woman; Women' s Role; age effect; age group; alcohol use disorder; base; binge drinking; boys; cohort; design; drinking; gender difference; male; men; novel; psychologic; public health intervention; satisfaction; trend; young adult

Age, period, and cohort effects on gender differences in alcohol use and alcohol use disorders in 47 national, longitudinally-followed cohorts Project abstract: Available evidence suggests that, across the lifecourse, gender patterns in alcohol use and alcohol use disorders are converging; however, (a) whether this convergence depends on developmental stage, (b) whether it is due to more rapid increases among women compared with men or, conversely, more rapid decreases among men compared with women, and (c) why it is happening all remain inadequately understood - representing a critical knowledge gap. Indeed, intervention and prevention efforts require information about whether convergence is limited to certain age groups, and most critically, why they occur. Further, potential increases in drinking among women portend a potential public health crisis, requiring accurate forecasting of future burden. Without such information, intervention and prevention efforts can be misplaced, focusing on the wrong age groups, or the wrong mediating factors. Only data with sufficient variation both historically and developmentally can answer foundational questions about diminishing gender differences in alcohol-related outcomes. Drawing from a lifecourse perspective, the present project will leverage 47 longitudinal cohorts collected through the Monitoring the Future (MTF) project, from 1976 through 2022, and apply rigorous age-period-cohort growth curve modeling to illuminate: when in historical time and during what developmental periods from ages 18 to 45 gender patterns have been converging; how gender patterns are converging (i.e. because women are increasing, men are decreasing, or both), and why gender patterns are converging. To determine why we will examine an unprecedented array of potential mediating factors including sociological trends in role transitions (marriage, parenthood, education, residential independence, and employment), gender and societal attitudes, and psychological factors (drinking attitudes and reasons, future intentions for partnership and parenthood, parenting and marriage satisfaction). We will employ rigorous age-period-cohort growth models to accomplish three aims: (1) Test when in historical time and at what developmental age gender patterns in alcohol consumption, binge drinking, and alcohol use disorder symptoms are converging or have converged; (2) Forecast future public health burden of alcohol consumption, binge drinking, and alcohol use disorder symptoms and (3) Analyze sociological, psychological, and attitudinal factors as potential mediators of gender convergences across historical time and developmental age. Mediation will be estimated with novel methods developed for epidemiological applications that overcome problematic assumptions of previous approaches. MTF data have been a key source of information on substance use for more than four decades; studies have not to date been used to examine age- period-cohort trends in gender differences in alcohol consumption. When, how, and why gender differences in alcohol consumption vary across both the lifecourse and generations represents an important gap in the literature; our proposed use of MTF data stands to be a seminal contribution.

年龄、时期和队列对 47 名饮酒者和酒精使用障碍中性别差异的影响 全国纵向追踪队列 项目摘要： 现有证据表明，在整个生命过程中，饮酒和酒精使用障碍的性别模式 正在收敛；然而，(a) 这种趋同是否取决于发展阶段，(b) 是否是由于 与男性相比，女性的增长更快，或者相反，男性的下降更快 与女性相比，以及（c）为什么会发生这种情况，这些都仍然没有得到充分的了解 - 代表了一个关键问题 知识差距。事实上，干预和预防工作需要有关趋同是否有效的信息。 仅限于某些年龄组，最关键的是，它们发生的原因。此外，饮酒的潜在增加 妇女预示着潜在的公共卫生危机，需要准确预测未来的负担。没有这样的 信息、干预和预防工作可能会放错地方，重点关注错误的年龄组，或者 错误的中介因素。只有历史和发展方面具有足够变化的数据才能回答 关于减少酒精相关结果中的性别差异的基本问题。绘图自 从生命历程的角度来看，本项目将利用通过监测收集的 47 个纵向队列 未来 (MTF) 项目，从 1976 年到 2022 年，并应用严格的年龄-时期-队列生长曲线模型 阐明：从 18 岁到 45 岁的性别模式处于历史时期和发展时期 已经趋同；性别模式如何趋同（即，由于女性数量增加，男性数量增加） 减少，或两者兼而有之），以及为什么性别模式正在趋同。为了确定为什么我们要检查 一系列前所未有的潜在中介因素，包括角色转变中的社会学趋势（婚姻、 父母身份、教育、居住独立和就业）、性别和社会态度，以及 心理因素（饮酒态度和原因、未来伴侣关系和养育子女的意图、养育子女 和婚姻满意度）。我们将采用严格的年龄组增长模型来实现三个目标： (1) 测试历史时期以及在什么年龄时饮酒、酗酒的性别模式 饮酒和酒精使用障碍症状正在趋同或已经趋同； (2) 预测未来公共卫生 饮酒、酗酒和酒精使用障碍症状的负担；(3) 分析社会学、 心理和态度因素作为跨历史时期性别趋同的潜在中介因素 发育年龄。将使用为流行病学应用开发的新方法来估计中介作用 克服了以前方法的有问题的假设。 MTF 数据已成为重要来源 四十多年来有关药物使用的信息；迄今为止尚未有研究用于检验年龄 酒精消费中性别差异的时期队列趋势。何时、如何以及为何存在性别差异 酒精消费量在生命周期和代际之间存在差异，这代表了酒精消费量的一个重要差距。 文学;我们建议使用 MTF 数据，这将是一个开创性的贡献。