CO2NSTRUCT: Modelling the role of circular economy construction value chains for a carbon-neutral Europe

将循环经济纳入气候行动和政策限制了欧盟尽快实现碳中和的进程。广泛应用的《泰晤士报》能源-气候缓解模型详细说明了在其温室气体减排途径中使用技术和技术进步的情况。由于环保实践是技术性的，CO2NSTRUCT认为TIMES是将气候减缓模型从线性转变为循环的理想代理模型。该项目将划定一个“循环气候缓解”框架，在第一阶段增强《时代》模型，但这可以作为其他气候缓解模型的印记。重点将放在六种普遍存在的碳密集型建筑材料上——钢铁、水泥、砖、玻璃、木材和隔热材料——以绘制六条价值链，这些价值链具有明确的反馈回路和量化的反弹效应，这是节能减排实践的关键。将考虑社会和环境外部性，包括温室气体和空气污染物排放、用水、隐含能源、能源贫困、就业和不平等。一旦在六种材料的关键行业中确定了这些和其他CE措施，就可以将LCA和mfa等CE工具耦合到TIMES模型中。《泰晤士报》将运行几个CE情景，量化CE在近期和未来对欧盟+气候缓解的作用，始终确保碳排放。成果将转化为有用和有效的政策支持信息，以促进可持续气候减缓，最大限度地减少可持续发展目标之间的冲突（在欧盟+和世界其他地区）。尽管该框架适用于整个欧盟+能源生产和消费系统（按国家分类），但CO2NSTRUCT将强调两个经济案例研究或集群：(1)海上可再生能源生产和(2)建筑。CO2NSTRUCT预计，该框架可在全球范围内被气候缓解建模者和决策者使用。欧盟将欧盟企业纳入气候行动将推动欧盟实现到2030年欧盟GDP增长0.5%的目标。

Circular Economy integration into climate action and policy is limiting the EU's advancement to achieve carbon neutrality as fast as possible. Widely applied TIMES energy-climate mitigation models detail the use of technology and technological advances in its GHG abatement pathways. Because CE practices are technical, CO2NSTRUCT deems TIMES the ideal proxy model to shift climate mitigation models from linear to circular. This project will delineate a “circular climate mitigation” framework to augment TIMES models at a first stage, but that can serve as an imprint for other climate mitigation models. The focus will be on six pervasive carbon-intensive construction materials – steel, cement, brick, glass, wood, and insulation – to map six value chains with explicit feedback loops and quantified rebound effects, key of CE practices. Social and environmental externalities will be accounted for, including GHG & air pollutants emissions, water usage, embodied energy, energy poverty, employment, and inequalities. Once these and other CE measures are identified in the key industries of the six materials, CE tools as LCA and MFAs can be coupled to the TIMES model. TIMES will run several CE scenariosto quantify the role of CE for EU+ climate mitigation in the near-term and future, always ensuring carbon. Outcomes will be translated into useful and effective policy support information for sustainable climate mitigation, minimising conflicts across SDGs (both in EU+ and rest of the world). Although the framework is applied to the whole EU+ energy production and consumption system (disaggregated per country), CO2NSTRUCT will emphasize two economic case studies or clusters: (1) offshore renewable energy production and (2) buildings. CO2NSTRUCT anticipates that the framework can be used globally by climate mitigation modelers and policy makers. CE integration into climate action will drive EC’s goal to increase EU GDP by 0.5% by 2030.