The Individual, Situational, and Contextual Risk Factors for Violent Firearm Injury and Firearm Homicide: A Comparative, Policy-Focused Approach

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PROJECT SUMMARY/ABSTRACT Nearly 40,000 people in the U.S. die from firearm-related deaths each year, and a sizable proportion of these deaths are homicides (roughly 37%). Non-lethal gun violence occurs even more frequently than lethal gun violence. In other words, while most research focuses on lethal gun violence, gun violence may be (a) physically non-injurious (i.e., a gun is brandished but not used); (b) injurious but non-lethal; or (c) lethal. Each of these outcomes have important public health implications for mental health, physical health, and mortality risk and prevention. Yet, we currently lack basic information on the nature and extent of most gun violence, particularly non-lethal gun violence. Following this, this proposal contends that to move knowledge of gun violence forward, it is essential to consider the individual, situational, and contextual risk factors for both non-lethal and lethal gun violence within a comprehensive, comparative framework. Put simply, studying gun violence without considering non-lethal injury might result in a mischaracterization of gun violence as a whole. Importantly, we also lack fundamental information about the impact and efficacy of many firearm policies on gun violence. Again, the impact of these various policies on non-lethal gun violence is particularly under- researched, despite the potential for variation in this impact. It is possible, for example, that some laws may have impacts on fatal gun violence, but less of an impact on non-fatal gun violence (i.e., by decreasing lethality, but not frequency). Other laws may have impacts on both fatal and non-fatal gun violence, while still other laws may have no effect on either form of gun violence. Yet, these patterns have not been systematically examined to this point. Following this, to address these research gaps, this research will use a combination of several data sources to compile a large-scale, detailed database which can be used to examine the factors and policies associated with firearm violence in three phases. First, the research team will compile data on violent crime to examine a number of measures intended to capture the diverse nature of firearm violence, including: (a) gun violence not resulting in physical injury; (b) gun violence resulting in non-fatal injury; and (c) gun violence resulting in death. Second, we will examine variation in these different types of gun violence according to a number of individual, situational, and contextual factors by using a series of multivariate regression models to examine variation in both the likelihood of each form of gun violence, and the rates of each form of gun violence. Specifically, we will examine differences according to: (1) individual perpetrator and victim characteristics (e.g., age, sex, race, victim-offender relationship); (2) the situational context of the offense (e.g., offense type, drug and alcohol use); and (3) the broader community context in which the offense occurs (e.g., population density, community characteristics). Finally, we will examine the overall association between state- level gun policies and gun-related violence generally, as well as the distinct association between these same policies and each form of gun violence (i.e., nonlethal and lethal).