Integrating data streams with multi-scale modeling to guide norovirus vaccine decision-making

将数据流与多尺度建模相结合，指导诺如病毒疫苗决策

• 批准号: 10413200
• 负责人: Benjamin A Lopman
• 金额: $ 34.03万
• 依托单位: EMORY UNIVERSITY
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 财政年份: 2018
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2018-06-01 至 2024-05-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://reporter.nih.gov/project-details/10413200
• 关键词: Address; Affect; Age; Animal Model; Biological; Cell Culture System; Cessation of life; Data; Data Set; Data Sources; Decision Making; Dependence; Development; Diarrhea; Disease; Disease Outbreaks; Epidemiology; Evolution; Face; Frequencies; Genotype; Goals; Hand; Health Policy; Health Status; Human; Immunity; Individual; Infection; Infection Control; Mathematics; Measures; Methods; Modeling; Norovirus; Phylogenetic Analysis; Policies; Population; Population Genetics; Public Health; Route; Sampling; Series; Statistical Models; Structure; Time; United States; Update; Vaccination; Vaccine Design; Vaccines; Viral; Virus; Virus Shedding; analytical method; authority; data streams; design; field study; human data; implementation strategy; innovation; insight; mathematical model; models and simulation; multi-scale modeling; multiple data sources; national surveillance; tool; transmission process; user-friendly; vaccination strategy; vaccine development; vaccine distribution; vaccine formulation; vaccine strategy; virus genetics; volunteer

PROJECT SUMMARY Noroviruses cause over 20 million diarrhea cases annually in the United States, one-fifth of all diarrhea cases globally, and over 200,000 deaths worldwide. Norovirus vaccines are currently in development. Our goal is to develop a comprehensive detailed, user-friendly norovirus transmission and vaccination simulator that will help guide and inform norovirus vaccine design and implementation. To achieve this goal, a number of specific insights and parameter estimates are required, such as: At what rate does immunity to norovirus wane in individuals? How does prior infection (or vaccination) affect the course of illness and the duration/quantity of viral shedding? What is the degree of cross-protecting immunity at the genogroup, genotype and strain-level? With such results in hand, we can answer the following vaccine strategy questions: What frequency of re-vaccination is required for control? How often will a norovirus vaccine need to be updated to keep up with viral evolution? What are the population-level health impacts of age-targeted (or other) vaccination strategies? To answer these questions, we will integrate detailed data from multiple sources including volunteer infection studies, national surveillance, and viral sequence datasets. We will fit mathematical and statistical models to these datasets to answer the questions posed above. Our analyses will provide a thorough understanding of the epidemiological and evolutionary dynamics of the virus. This information will be used to develop and implement a detailed norovirus transmission and vaccination simulator. This simulator will be packaged as a user-friendly application for vaccine designers and policy implementers to analyze and forecast possible impacts of vaccine formulations and distribution strategies.

项目总结

项目成果

Five approaches to the suppression of SARS-CoV-2 without intensive social distancing.

• DOI: 10.1098/rspb.2020.3074
• 发表时间: 2021-04-28
• 期刊: Proceedings. Biological sciences
• 作者: Drake JM;Dahlin K;Rohani P;Handel A
• 通讯作者: Handel A

Norovirus transmission mitigation strategies during simulated produce harvest and packing.

• DOI: 10.1016/j.ijfoodmicro.2021.109365
• 发表时间: 2021-11-02
• 期刊: International journal of food microbiology
• 影响因子: 5.4
• 作者: Sobolik JS;Newman KL;Jaykus LA;Bihn EA;Leon JS
• 通讯作者: Leon JS

Dynamic network strategies for SARS-CoV-2 control on a cruise ship.

• DOI: 10.1016/j.epidem.2021.100488
• 发表时间: 2021-12
• 期刊: Epidemics
• 影响因子: 3.8
• 作者: Jenness SM;Willebrand KS;Malik AA;Lopman BA;Omer SB
• 通讯作者: Omer SB

Genetic drift and purifying selection shape within-host influenza A virus populations during natural swine infections.

在自然猪感染期间，遗传漂变和纯化​​选择塑造了宿主甲型流感病毒种群。

• DOI: 10.1101/2023.10.23.563581
• 发表时间: 2023
• 期刊: bioRxiv : the preprint server for biology
• 作者: VanInsberghe,David;McBride,DillonS;DaSilva,Juliana;Stark,ThomasJ;Lau,MaxSY;Shepard,SamuelS;Barnes,JohnR;Bowman,AndrewS;Lowen,AniceC;Koelle,Katia
• 通讯作者: Koelle,Katia

Controlling risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection in essential workers of enclosed food manufacturing facilities.

控制封闭食品生产设施的重要工作人员感染 SARS-CoV-2 的风险。

• DOI: 10.1101/2021.05.14.21257244
• 发表时间: 2021
• 期刊: medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences
• 作者: Sobolik,JuliaS;Sajewski,ElizabethT;Jaykus,Lee-Ann;Cooper,DKane;Lopman,BenA;Kraay,AliciaNm;Ryan,PBarry;Leon,JuanS
• 通讯作者: Leon,JuanS