Modeling the influence of temperature on the evolution of vector-virus interactions

模拟温度对载体-病毒相互作用进化的影响

• 批准号: 10419199
• 负责人: Alexander Timothy Ciota
• 金额: $ 48.29万
• 依托单位: WADSWORTH CENTER
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 财政年份: 2022
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2022-02-03 至 2027-01-31
• 项目状态: 未结题
• 来源: https://reporter.nih.gov/project-details/10419199
• 关键词: Address; Affect; Arboviruses; Biology; Cessation of life; Climate; Culex (Genus); Culex pipiens; Culicidae; Data; Development; Environment; Evolution; Flaviviridae; Flavivirus; Genotype; Geography; High temperature of physical object; Human; Infection; Invertebrate Biology; Laboratories; Location; Modeling; Population; Prevalence; Role; System; Temperature; Testing; Update; Variant; Vectorial capacity; Viral; Virus; Virus Replication; West Nile viral infection; West Nile virus; base; biological systems; dynamical evolution; emerging pathogen; enzootic; fitness; future climate scenario; in vivo; infectious disease model; life history; novel; pathogen; predictive modeling; response; theories; trait; transmission process; vector; vector competence; vector-borne pathogen; viral fitness; viral transmission

PROJECT SUMMARY Warmer temperatures have been associated with increased virus transmission and emergence of novel pathogens and vectors in new locations. Temperature is well documented to have a significant effect on viral fitness and replication, which is particularly relevant in ectothermic vectors of enzootic viruses such as mosquitoes. Temperature also impacts numerous aspects of invertebrate biology and therefore is a critical factor influencing the transmission potential of vector populations. Studies to date which aim to model environmental effects on population level viral dynamics assume static biological systems. Given the strong effects of temperature on viral replication rates (and consequently evolutionary rates), the variability of vector species and population responses to temperature, and the documented role of interactions among viral genotype and environment in governing transmission, this assumption is flawed. This represents a clear gap in our understanding of pathogen transmission theory and a barrier to developing accurate predictive models. West Nile virus (WNV; Flavivirus, Flaviviridae) is the most prevalent arbovirus in the U.S. and the ideal candidate for modeling how temperature and viral genotype interact to influence transmission and evolution of arboviruses in dynamic vector populations. There is large variability in prevalence in mosquitoes over both fine and broad temporal and geographic scales, and this variability has been well-documented in the U.S. Variation in temperature and viral genotypes have also been documented over similar scales. We will utilize novel laboratory data to refine predictions of arbovirus transmission under various evolutionary and climate scenarios, and ultimately to create more informed predictive models that should have broader implications for vector-borne pathogens.

项目摘要 温度较高与病毒传播和新颖的出现有关 新位置的病原体和向量。温度有充分的文献记载，对病毒产生重大影响 适应性和复制，这在诸如enzootic病毒的端热媒介中特别相关 蚊子。温度还影响无脊椎动物生物学的许多方面，因此是关键 影响向量种群传播潜力的因素。迄今为止旨在建模的研究 环境对种群水平病毒动态的影响假设静态生物系统。鉴于强者 温度对病毒复制率（以及因此进化速率）的影响，矢量的变异性 物种和人口对温度的反应以及病毒之间相互作用的作用 控制传播的基因型和环境，此假设存在缺陷。这代表了一个明显的差距 我们对病原体传播理论的理解和开发准确的预测模型的障碍。 西尼罗河病毒（WNV； Flavivivirus，Flaviviridae）是美国最普遍的Arbovirus，也是理想的 用于建模温度和病毒基因型如何相互作用以影响的候选者 动态矢量种群中的arbovirus。蚊子的患病率差异很大 以及广泛的时间和地理量表，在美国的变异中有充分的文献记录 在温度和病毒基因型中，也已经在类似的尺度上进行了记录。我们将利用小说 实验室数据以完善各种进化和气候下的arbovirus传播的预测 场景，最终创建更明智的预测模型，应该对 向量传播的病原体。