Modeling the influence of temperature on the evolution of vector-virus interactions

项目总结 气温升高与病毒传播增加和新奇病毒的出现有关 新地点的病原体和病媒。有充分的证据证明温度对病毒有显著影响。 适合度和复制，这在地方性病毒的外温载体中尤其相关，例如 蚊子。温度也影响无脊椎动物生物学的许多方面，因此是一个关键 影响媒介种群传播潜力的因素。迄今为止旨在建立模型的研究 环境对种群水平病毒动态的影响假定生物系统是静态的。考虑到强者 温度对病毒复制率(以及随后的进化率)、载体的可变性的影响 物种和种群对温度的反应，以及病毒之间相互作用的已记录的作用 在控制传播的基因和环境方面，这种假设是有缺陷的。这代表着一个明显的差距 我们对病原体传播理论的理解和开发准确预测模型的障碍。 西尼罗河病毒(WNV；黄病毒，黄病毒科)是美国流行最普遍的虫媒病毒，也是理想的 温度和病毒基因如何相互作用影响病毒传播和进化的候选模型 动态媒介种群中的虫媒病毒。在这两种情况下，蚊子的流行率都有很大的差异 和广泛的时间和地理范围，这种变异性在美国的变化中得到了很好的记录 在类似的规模上，也记录了温度和病毒基因类型。我们将利用小说 实验室数据用于完善对不同进化和气候下虫媒病毒传播的预测 场景，并最终创建更明智的预测模型，这些模型应该具有更广泛的影响 病媒传播的病原体。

PROJECT SUMMARY Warmer temperatures have been associated with increased virus transmission and emergence of novel pathogens and vectors in new locations. Temperature is well documented to have a significant effect on viral fitness and replication, which is particularly relevant in ectothermic vectors of enzootic viruses such as mosquitoes. Temperature also impacts numerous aspects of invertebrate biology and therefore is a critical factor influencing the transmission potential of vector populations. Studies to date which aim to model environmental effects on population level viral dynamics assume static biological systems. Given the strong effects of temperature on viral replication rates (and consequently evolutionary rates), the variability of vector species and population responses to temperature, and the documented role of interactions among viral genotype and environment in governing transmission, this assumption is flawed. This represents a clear gap in our understanding of pathogen transmission theory and a barrier to developing accurate predictive models. West Nile virus (WNV; Flavivirus, Flaviviridae) is the most prevalent arbovirus in the U.S. and the ideal candidate for modeling how temperature and viral genotype interact to influence transmission and evolution of arboviruses in dynamic vector populations. There is large variability in prevalence in mosquitoes over both fine and broad temporal and geographic scales, and this variability has been well-documented in the U.S. Variation in temperature and viral genotypes have also been documented over similar scales. We will utilize novel laboratory data to refine predictions of arbovirus transmission under various evolutionary and climate scenarios, and ultimately to create more informed predictive models that should have broader implications for vector-borne pathogens.