Modeling the influence of temperature on the evolution of vector-virus interactions

项目摘要 温度升高与病毒传播增加和新病毒的出现有关。 病原体和载体在新的位置。有充分的证据表明，温度对病毒感染有显著影响。 适合度和复制，这在地方病病毒的外温载体中特别相关， 蚊子温度也影响无脊椎动物生物学的许多方面，因此是一个关键因素。 影响病媒种群传播潜力的因素。迄今为止的研究旨在模拟 环境对种群水平的影响病毒动力学假设静态的生物系统。考虑到强劲的 温度对病毒复制率（以及随后的进化率）的影响， 物种和种群对温度的反应，以及病毒之间相互作用的作用 基因型和环境在控制传播中的作用，这种假设是有缺陷的。这是一个明显的差距， 我们对病原体传播理论的理解和开发准确预测模型的障碍。 西尼罗河病毒（WNV;黄病毒，黄病毒科）是美国最流行的虫媒病毒， 模拟温度和病毒基因型如何相互作用以影响病毒的传播和进化的候选人。 虫媒病毒在动态载体群体中的作用。在两种细粉中，蚊子的流行率差异很大。 和广泛的时间和地理尺度，这种变异性已在美国变异中得到很好的记录。 在温度和病毒基因型方面也有类似的记录。我们将利用小说 实验室数据，以完善各种进化和气候条件下虫媒病毒传播的预测 场景，并最终创建更明智的预测模型，这些模型应该对 病媒传播的病原体。

PROJECT SUMMARY Warmer temperatures have been associated with increased virus transmission and emergence of novel pathogens and vectors in new locations. Temperature is well documented to have a significant effect on viral fitness and replication, which is particularly relevant in ectothermic vectors of enzootic viruses such as mosquitoes. Temperature also impacts numerous aspects of invertebrate biology and therefore is a critical factor influencing the transmission potential of vector populations. Studies to date which aim to model environmental effects on population level viral dynamics assume static biological systems. Given the strong effects of temperature on viral replication rates (and consequently evolutionary rates), the variability of vector species and population responses to temperature, and the documented role of interactions among viral genotype and environment in governing transmission, this assumption is flawed. This represents a clear gap in our understanding of pathogen transmission theory and a barrier to developing accurate predictive models. West Nile virus (WNV; Flavivirus, Flaviviridae) is the most prevalent arbovirus in the U.S. and the ideal candidate for modeling how temperature and viral genotype interact to influence transmission and evolution of arboviruses in dynamic vector populations. There is large variability in prevalence in mosquitoes over both fine and broad temporal and geographic scales, and this variability has been well-documented in the U.S. Variation in temperature and viral genotypes have also been documented over similar scales. We will utilize novel laboratory data to refine predictions of arbovirus transmission under various evolutionary and climate scenarios, and ultimately to create more informed predictive models that should have broader implications for vector-borne pathogens.