Project 2: Climate forcing of harmful algal blooms and toxicity exposure in the Northeast U.S.

摘要/摘要 我们的目标是了解和预测气候变化如何影响有害藻华(HAB)的动态， 对人类人口的毒素暴露，以及对人类健康的影响。我们假设气候引起的 环境变化将以下列方式影响赤潮的组成、分布和严重程度 基于对先前气候强迫的反应，可以预测。我们的研究将集中在甲藻 亚历山大藻和拟菱形藻属的硅藻，这些生物产生萨曲霉毒素和 软骨藻酸。使用缅因湾(GOM)和Nauset Marsh(新墨西哥州)作为模型系统，我们将 构建从1900年到现在的后播模拟。这些后播将基于最新情况- 来自耦合模式比较项目第五阶段(CMIP5)的ART气候模式，现有 Fundyense的模型和拟拟菱形藻的模型。将会被合并。后播 将根据本文收集的气候数据记录进行评估，记录 目标物种的丰度以及沿海贝类资源的毒性(毒素积累)。一个 将开发子模型来估计人类接触这些毒素的情况。后播之间的不符之处 观察结果将指导迭代模型的改进。一旦达成令人满意的协议， 模型将在各种气候变化情景的预测模式下运行。拟议的研究将是 以几种方式整合到WHCOHH中：(1)在项目1中了解到的关于水华动力学的内容将是 用于改进HAB模型；(2)将合作开发曝光子模型 与项目3合作；(3)所有三个项目都将参与分析赤潮和赤潮的气候强迫变化。 对人类健康的威胁；和(4)结果将通过社区参与核心传达。

Summary/Abstract Our goal is to understand and predict how climate variability influences harmful algal bloom (HAB) dynamics, toxin exposure to the human population, and impacts on human health. We hypothesize that climate-induced environmental changes will influence the composition, distribution, and severity of HABs in ways that are predictable based on response to previous climate forcing. Our studies will focus on the dinoflagellate Alexandrium fundyense and diatoms of the genus Pseudo-nitzschia, organisms that produce saxitoxin and domoic acid, respectively. Using the Gulf of Maine (GOM) and Nauset Marsh (NM) as model systems, we will construct hindcast simulations from 1900 through the present. These hindcasts will be based on state-of-the- art climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), into which existing models of A. fundyense and a to-be-developed model of Pseudo-nitzschia spp. will be incorporated. Hindcasts will be evaluated on the basis of climate data records assembled herein, documenting fluctuations in abundance of the target species as well as toxicity (toxin accumulation) in coastal shellfish resources. A submodel will be developed to estimate human exposure to these toxins. Discrepancies between the hindcasts and observations will guide iterative model improvement. Once satisfactory agreement has been achieved, the models will be run in forecast mode with various climate change scenarios. The proposed research will be integrated into the WHCOHH in several ways: (1) what is learned about bloom dynamics in Project 1 will be used to improve HAB models; (2) development of the exposure submodel will be undertaken in collaboration with Project 3; (3) all three projects will participate in the analysis of climate-forced variations in HABs and threats to human health; and (4) results will be communicated through the Community Engagement Core.