Project 2: Climate forcing of harmful algal blooms and toxicity exposure in the Northeast U.S.

项目 2：美国东北部有害藻华和毒性暴露的气候强迫

• 批准号: 10223308
• 负责人: DENNIS J MCGILLICUDDY
• 金额: $ 14.07万
• 依托单位: WOODS HOLE OCEANOGRAPHIC INSTITUTION
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 财政年份: 2018
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2018-09-30 至 2023-06-30
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://reporter.nih.gov/project-details/10223308
• 关键词: Agreement; Algae; Behavior; Biological Models; Cells; Characteristics; Climate; Collaborations; Communities; Consumption; Coupled; Cyst; Data; Development; Diatoms; Dinophyceae; Ecosystem; Environment; Exposure to; Formulation; Future; Goals; Growth; Health; Human; In Situ; Knowledge; Laboratories; Maine; Measurement; Modeling; Oceans; Organism; Paralysed; Performance; Phase; Poisoning; Population; Prevalence; Process; Property; Public Health; Records; Research; Research Support; Resources; Risk; Running; Saxitoxin; Severities; Shellfish; Temperature; Testing; Time; Toxic effect; Toxin; Uncertainty; Variant; Water; Wood material; base; climate change; climate data; climate impact; climate variability; community engagement; domoic acid; environmental change; exposed human population; future climate scenario; harmful algal blooms; improved; insight; migration; novel; predictive modeling; programs; response; simulation; skills

Summary/Abstract Our goal is to understand and predict how climate variability influences harmful algal bloom (HAB) dynamics, toxin exposure to the human population, and impacts on human health. We hypothesize that climate-induced environmental changes will influence the composition, distribution, and severity of HABs in ways that are predictable based on response to previous climate forcing. Our studies will focus on the dinoflagellate Alexandrium fundyense and diatoms of the genus Pseudo-nitzschia, organisms that produce saxitoxin and domoic acid, respectively. Using the Gulf of Maine (GOM) and Nauset Marsh (NM) as model systems, we will construct hindcast simulations from 1900 through the present. These hindcasts will be based on state-of-the- art climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), into which existing models of A. fundyense and a to-be-developed model of Pseudo-nitzschia spp. will be incorporated. Hindcasts will be evaluated on the basis of climate data records assembled herein, documenting fluctuations in abundance of the target species as well as toxicity (toxin accumulation) in coastal shellfish resources. A submodel will be developed to estimate human exposure to these toxins. Discrepancies between the hindcasts and observations will guide iterative model improvement. Once satisfactory agreement has been achieved, the models will be run in forecast mode with various climate change scenarios. The proposed research will be integrated into the WHCOHH in several ways: (1) what is learned about bloom dynamics in Project 1 will be used to improve HAB models; (2) development of the exposure submodel will be undertaken in collaboration with Project 3; (3) all three projects will participate in the analysis of climate-forced variations in HABs and threats to human health; and (4) results will be communicated through the Community Engagement Core.

摘要/摘要 我们的目标是了解和预测气候变异性如何影响有害藻华（HAB）动态，即 毒素暴露于人口，并影响人类健康。我们假设气候引起的 环境变化将以HAB的组成，分布和严重性的方式影响 可以根据对先前气候强迫的反应进行预测。我们的研究将重点放在鞭毛藻 Alexandrium fundyense和伪nitzschia属的硅藻，产生saxitoxin和saxitoxin的生物 分别二氧酸。将缅因州（GOM）和Nauset Marsh（NM）作为模型系统，我们将 从1900年到现在构建后广播模拟。这些后广播将基于最新 耦合模型对比项目5阶段（CMIP5）的艺术气候模型，其中现有 A. fundyense的模型和Pseudo-Nitzschia spp的开发模型。将合并。后广播 将根据本文组装的气候数据记录进行评估，记录在 目标物种的丰度以及沿海贝类资源中的毒性（毒素积累）。一个 将开发子模型以估计人类对这些毒素的接触。后广播之间的差异 观察结果将指导迭代模型改进。一旦达成令人满意的协议， 模型将以各种气候变化方案的预测模式运行。拟议的研究将是 以几种方式整合到whoch中：（1）项目1中的关于布鲁姆动态的知识将是什么 用于改善HAB模型； （2）曝光子模型的开发将进行合作 与项目3； （3）这三个项目将参与HAB和 对人类健康的威胁； （4）结果将通过社区参与核心传达。