Estimating the Cost Trajectories and Projecting the Cost of Cancer Care in the United States: Methodology and Application

项目总结/摘要 定期准确预测美国癌症护理的费用， 决策者了解癌症的经济影响， 制定和评估成本控制政策和干预措施。我们建议系统地 制定新的成本估算和预测方法， 二十多年来发展起来的护理阶段成本计算方法面临的挑战 这一标准已被美国国家癌症研究所在其定期成本报告中采用。 我们的方法包括新的方法（a）建模纵向成本轨迹， 人工划分初始、持续和终末护理阶段，（B）识别更可比的 匹配的对照队列在估计可归因于癌症的净成本，（c）外推 从SEER-医疗保险数据库估计到美国的成本轨迹 人口和验证外推算法，以预测全国癌症 护理费用。我们将把提出的方法应用于SEER-医疗保险数据，以预测 前五种最昂贵的癌症（乳腺癌、结直肠癌、肺癌、前列腺癌和淋巴瘤），加上 白血病，在美国2020年至2030年之间。将开发方便用户的软件 并分发用于日常使用。

Project Summary/Abstract Accurate projection of the costs of cancer care in the United States on a regular basis is critically important for decision makers to understand the economic impact of cancer and to develop and assess cost containment policies and interventions. We propose to systematically develop new methodology for cost estimation and projection that addresses analytical challenges in the phase-of-care costing method, which was developed more than two decades ago and has since been adopted by the National Cancer Institute in its periodic cost reporting. Our methodology includes new methods to (a) model the longitudinal cost trajectories without artificial partitioning of initial, continuing, and terminal care phases, (b) identify more comparable matched control cohort in the estimation of net cost attributable to cancer, (c) to extrapolate the cost trajectories estimated from SEER-Medicare database to the general United States population and validate the extrapolation algorithm for the purpose of projecting national cancer care costs. We will apply the proposed methods to SEER-Medicare data to project the costs of the top five most costly cancers (breast, colorectal, lung, prostate, and lymphoma), plus leukemia, in the United States between 2020 and 2030. User-friendly software will be developed and disseminated for routine use.