Local Economic Conditions and Patterns of Family Instability and Complexity

项目总结。经济和家庭--这两个社会机构对健康和 在过去的半个世纪里，美国的幸福感发生了深刻的变化。经济发生了变化 由于男性工资停滞不前，制造业就业岗位减少，服务业就业人数上升，以及 不平等的加剧。与此同时，美国家庭经历了不稳定的增加(反复变化 父母婚姻/结合状况)和复杂性(存在于典型核心家庭结构之外的家庭) 整个1990年代末，大约40%的儿童目前生活在复杂的家庭中。本地 经济状况，如收入不平等，与单一的家庭形成行为有关，如非婚 出生。然而，当地经济状况与家庭不稳定和复杂性之间的关系仍然存在。 未知。拟议研究项目的目标是评估当地经济状况如何- 失业率、工资停滞、职业结构和收入不平等--与 家庭不稳定和复杂性的模式，确定这些联系是如何随着历史的推移而发展的 并因社会位置的不同而不同。目标1将建立当代(1997-2017)家庭不稳定和 当地经济条件的复杂性。目标2将评估当地经济状况的变化情况 与家庭不稳定和复杂性随历史时间的变化联系在一起，比较三个时期：1969年- 1975年(早期家庭变化)、1976-1996年(快速家庭变化)、1997-2017年(家庭变化平台期)。目标3将 评估种族和教育程度在当地经济条件之间的关联中的差异 以及家庭的不稳定性和复杂性。PI将使用先进的定量方法-序列分析， 人口分解、空间数据分析和因果推理技术--为了实现这些目标， 使用具有全国代表性的数据将产生可推广的结果。总体而言，目标将 就(1)当地经济状况是否以及如何影响家庭模式提供严格的证据 结构变化，以及(2)哪些儿童最容易受到家庭的不稳定和复杂性的影响。 这些发现与人口健康相关，因为家庭的不稳定和复杂性损害了 父母和子女的健康和福祉。这项研究项目是一个更广泛的、为期3年的博士后项目的一部分。 在一所顶尖研究型大学的培训奖学金，由一组在家庭演示方面具有专业知识的导师监督- 图形和经济不平等。培训计划包括：(1)家庭人口学方面的实质性培训； 经济状况和经济不平等；(2)高级量化方法培训，将有助于 从事与人口健康相关的研究；以及(3)通过增加研究来实现专业发展 独立性、拨款申请、会议报告和网络。培训计划将为PI做好准备 对社会和经济条件如何影响整个家庭结构轨迹进行创新研究 寿命，这会对人口动态和人口健康产生影响。

PROJECT SUMMARY. The economy and the family—two social institutions that strongly affect health and well-being in the US—have undergone profound change in the last half-century. The economy changed through the stagnation of male wages, declining manufacturing jobs and rising service sector employment, and increases in inequality. Simultaneously, US families experienced increases in instability (repeated changes in parental marital/union status) and complexity (families that exist outside the typical nuclear family structure) through the late 1990s, such that approximately 40% of children currently live in complex families. Local economic conditions, like income inequality, are linked with singular family formation behaviors, like nonmarital births. Yet, the relationship between local economic conditions and family instability and complexity remains unknown. The objective of the proposed research project is to assess how local economic conditions— unemployment rates, wage stagnation, occupational structure, and income inequality—are associated with patterns of family instability and complexity, identifying how these associations developed over historical time and vary by social location. Aim 1 will establish contemporary (1997-2017) patterns of family instability and complexity by local economic conditions. Aim 2 will assess how changes in local economic conditions are linked with changes in family instability and complexity over historical time, comparing three periods: 1969- 1975 (early family change), 1976-1996 (rapid family change), 1997-2017 (family change plateau). Aim 3 will assess variation by race and educational attainment in the associations between local economic conditions and family instability and complexity. The PI will use advanced quantitative methods—sequence analysis, demographic decomposition, spatial data analysis, and causal inference techniques—to address these aims, and the use of nationally-representative data will produce generalizable results. Collectively, the aims will generate rigorous evidence on (1) whether and how local economic conditions affect patterns of family structure change, and (2) which children are most likely to be exposed to family instability and complexity. These findings are relevant to population health because family instability and complexity compromise the health and well-being of parents and children. This research project is part of a broader, 3-year postdoctoral training fellowship at a top research university, supervised by a team of mentors with expertise in family demo- graphy and economic inequality. The training plan comprises: (1) substantive training in family demography, economic conditions, and economic inequality; (2) advanced quantitative methods training that will facilitate a career in population health-relevant research; and (3) professional development through increased research independence, grant writing, conference presentations, and networking. The training plan will prepare the PI to conduct innovative research on how social and economic conditions shape family structure trajectories across the lifespan, which has consequences for population dynamics and population health.