Local Economic Conditions and Patterns of Family Instability and Complexity

项目摘要。经济和家庭-这两个社会机构对健康和 在过去的半个世纪里，美国的幸福经历了深刻的变化。经济发生了变化 通过男性工资停滞，制造业就业岗位减少和服务业就业岗位增加， 不平等加剧。与此同时，美国家庭经历了不稳定性的增加（ 父母婚姻/结合状况）和复杂性（存在于典型核心家庭结构之外的家庭） 到20世纪90年代末，大约40%的儿童生活在复杂的家庭中。当地 经济条件，如收入不平等，与单一的家庭形成行为，如非婚姻， 出生然而，当地经济条件与家庭不稳定和复杂性之间的关系仍然存在 未知拟议研究项目的目标是评估当地经济状况- 失业率，工资停滞，职业结构和收入不平等-与 家庭不稳定性和复杂性的模式，确定这些协会如何在历史上发展 并且随社会位置而变化。目标1将确定当代（1997-2017年）家庭不稳定的模式， 当地经济条件的复杂性。目标2将评估当地经济状况的变化 与历史上家庭不稳定性和复杂性的变化有关，比较三个时期：1969年至 1975年（早期家庭变化），1976-1996年（快速家庭变化），1997-2017年（家庭变化高原）。目标3将 评估种族和教育程度在当地经济条件之间的关联中的差异 家庭的不稳定性和复杂性。PI将使用先进的定量方法-序列分析， 人口分解、空间数据分析和因果推理技术--为了实现这些目标， 使用具有全国代表性的数据将产生可推广的结果。总的来说，这些目标将 就（1）当地经济条件是否以及如何影响家庭模式提供有力证据 结构的变化，以及（2）哪些孩子最有可能暴露在家庭的不稳定和复杂性。 这些发现与人口健康有关，因为家庭的不稳定性和复杂性损害了人口健康。 父母和子女的健康和福祉。这个研究项目是一个更广泛的，为期3年的博士后项目的一部分。 在顶尖研究型大学的培训奖学金，由一组具有家庭演示专业知识的导师监督， 地理和经济不平等。培训计划包括：（1）家庭人口学方面的实质性培训， 经济条件和经济不平等;（2）先进的定量方法培训，这将有助于 从事人口健康相关研究;（3）通过增加研究促进专业发展 独立性，赠款写作，会议演示和网络。培训计划将使PI做好准备， 开展创新性研究，探讨社会和经济条件如何影响家庭结构轨迹， 寿命，这对人口动态和人口健康有影响。

PROJECT SUMMARY. The economy and the family—two social institutions that strongly affect health and well-being in the US—have undergone profound change in the last half-century. The economy changed through the stagnation of male wages, declining manufacturing jobs and rising service sector employment, and increases in inequality. Simultaneously, US families experienced increases in instability (repeated changes in parental marital/union status) and complexity (families that exist outside the typical nuclear family structure) through the late 1990s, such that approximately 40% of children currently live in complex families. Local economic conditions, like income inequality, are linked with singular family formation behaviors, like nonmarital births. Yet, the relationship between local economic conditions and family instability and complexity remains unknown. The objective of the proposed research project is to assess how local economic conditions— unemployment rates, wage stagnation, occupational structure, and income inequality—are associated with patterns of family instability and complexity, identifying how these associations developed over historical time and vary by social location. Aim 1 will establish contemporary (1997-2017) patterns of family instability and complexity by local economic conditions. Aim 2 will assess how changes in local economic conditions are linked with changes in family instability and complexity over historical time, comparing three periods: 1969- 1975 (early family change), 1976-1996 (rapid family change), 1997-2017 (family change plateau). Aim 3 will assess variation by race and educational attainment in the associations between local economic conditions and family instability and complexity. The PI will use advanced quantitative methods—sequence analysis, demographic decomposition, spatial data analysis, and causal inference techniques—to address these aims, and the use of nationally-representative data will produce generalizable results. Collectively, the aims will generate rigorous evidence on (1) whether and how local economic conditions affect patterns of family structure change, and (2) which children are most likely to be exposed to family instability and complexity. These findings are relevant to population health because family instability and complexity compromise the health and well-being of parents and children. This research project is part of a broader, 3-year postdoctoral training fellowship at a top research university, supervised by a team of mentors with expertise in family demo- graphy and economic inequality. The training plan comprises: (1) substantive training in family demography, economic conditions, and economic inequality; (2) advanced quantitative methods training that will facilitate a career in population health-relevant research; and (3) professional development through increased research independence, grant writing, conference presentations, and networking. The training plan will prepare the PI to conduct innovative research on how social and economic conditions shape family structure trajectories across the lifespan, which has consequences for population dynamics and population health.