Local Economic Conditions and Patterns of Family Instability and Complexity

当地经济状况以及家庭不稳定和复杂的模式

• 批准号: 10645027
• 负责人: Jake J. Hays
• 金额: $ 6.91万
• 依托单位: UNIVERSITY OF MICHIGAN AT ANN ARBOR
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 财政年份: 2022
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2022-09-01 至 2025-08-31
• 项目状态: 未结题
• 来源: https://reporter.nih.gov/project-details/10645027
• 关键词: Address; Adult; Affect; Area; Attention; Behavior; Birth; Child; Child Health; Child Welfare; Cluster Analysis; Complex; County; Data; Data Analyses; Data Sources; Development; Economic Conditions; Economic Factors; Economics; Education; Educational Status; Employment; Environment; Event; Exposure to; Family; Family Demographies; Fellowship; First Births; Goals; Grant; Health; Imprisonment; Income; Inequality; Institution; Link; Location; Longevity; Measures; Mentors; Methods; Modeling; Nuclear Family; Occupational; Occupations; Parents; Pattern; Personal Satisfaction; Population Dynamics; Process; Race; Research; Research Project Grants; Selection Bias; Sequence Analysis; Services; Shapes; Social Class; Social Conditions; Stepfamilies; Structural Models; Structure; Tail; Techniques; Testing; Time; Training; Unemployment; Universities; Variant; Wages; Woman; Writing; black men; black women; career; college; experience; family structure; health disparity; innovation; intergenerational; local economy; male; manufacture; men; panel study of income dynamics; parental influence; population health; post-doctoral training; racial disparity; social; social factors; symposium; transmission process

PROJECT SUMMARY. The economy and the family—two social institutions that strongly affect health and well-being in the US—have undergone profound change in the last half-century. The economy changed through the stagnation of male wages, declining manufacturing jobs and rising service sector employment, and increases in inequality. Simultaneously, US families experienced increases in instability (repeated changes in parental marital/union status) and complexity (families that exist outside the typical nuclear family structure) through the late 1990s, such that approximately 40% of children currently live in complex families. Local economic conditions, like income inequality, are linked with singular family formation behaviors, like nonmarital births. Yet, the relationship between local economic conditions and family instability and complexity remains unknown. The objective of the proposed research project is to assess how local economic conditions— unemployment rates, wage stagnation, occupational structure, and income inequality—are associated with patterns of family instability and complexity, identifying how these associations developed over historical time and vary by social location. Aim 1 will establish contemporary (1997-2017) patterns of family instability and complexity by local economic conditions. Aim 2 will assess how changes in local economic conditions are linked with changes in family instability and complexity over historical time, comparing three periods: 1969- 1975 (early family change), 1976-1996 (rapid family change), 1997-2017 (family change plateau). Aim 3 will assess variation by race and educational attainment in the associations between local economic conditions and family instability and complexity. The PI will use advanced quantitative methods—sequence analysis, demographic decomposition, spatial data analysis, and causal inference techniques—to address these aims, and the use of nationally-representative data will produce generalizable results. Collectively, the aims will generate rigorous evidence on (1) whether and how local economic conditions affect patterns of family structure change, and (2) which children are most likely to be exposed to family instability and complexity. These findings are relevant to population health because family instability and complexity compromise the health and well-being of parents and children. This research project is part of a broader, 3-year postdoctoral training fellowship at a top research university, supervised by a team of mentors with expertise in family demo- graphy and economic inequality. The training plan comprises: (1) substantive training in family demography, economic conditions, and economic inequality; (2) advanced quantitative methods training that will facilitate a career in population health-relevant research; and (3) professional development through increased research independence, grant writing, conference presentations, and networking. The training plan will prepare the PI to conduct innovative research on how social and economic conditions shape family structure trajectories across the lifespan, which has consequences for population dynamics and population health.

项目摘要。经济和家庭——两个强烈影响健康和健康的社会机构 美国的福祉在过去半个世纪中发生了深刻的变化。经济发生了变化 由于男性工资停滞、制造业就业岗位减少和服务业就业岗位增加，以及 不平等现象加剧。与此同时，美国家庭的不稳定因素不断增加（家庭状况的反复变化）。 父母婚姻/结合状况）和复杂性（存在于典型核心家庭结构之外的家庭） 到 20 世纪 90 年代末，目前约有 40% 的儿童生活在复杂的家庭中。当地的 经济状况，如收入不平等，与单一的家庭形成行为，如非婚 出生。然而，当地经济状况与家庭不稳定和复杂性之间的关系仍然存在 未知。拟议研究项目的目标是评估当地经济状况如何—— 失业率、工资停滞、职业结构和收入不平等——与 家庭不稳定和复杂的模式，确定这些关联在历史时期是如何发展的 并因社会位置而异。目标 1 将建立当代（1997-2017）家庭不稳定的模式 当地经济条件的复杂性。目标 2 将评估当地经济状况的变化 与历史时期家庭不稳定和复杂性的变化相关，比较三个时期：1969- 1975年（早期家庭变化）、1976-1996年（快速家庭变化）、1997-2017年（家庭变化平台期）。目标3将 评估种族和教育程度的差异与当地经济状况之间的关联 以及家庭的不稳定和复杂性。 PI 将使用先进的定量方法——序列分析、 人口统计分解、空间数据分析和因果推理技术——为了实现这些目标， 使用具有全国代表性的数据将产生具有普遍意义的结果。总体而言，目标将 就 (1) 当地经济条件是否以及如何影响家庭模式提供严格的证据 结构变化，以及（2）哪些孩子最有可能面临家庭的不稳定和复杂性。 这些发现与人口健康相关，因为家庭的不稳定和复杂性会影响健康 父母和孩子的健康和福祉。该研究项目是更广泛的为期 3 年的博士后项目的一部分 顶尖研究型大学的培训奖学金，由具有家庭演示专业知识的导师团队监督 地理和经济不平等。培训计划包括：（1）家庭人口学实质性培训， 经济状况和经济不平等； (2) 高级定量方法培训，将有助于 从事人口健康相关研究的职业； (3) 通过加强研究进行专业发展 独立性、资助写作、会议演讲和网络。培训计划将使 PI 做好准备 对社会和经济条件如何影响家庭结构轨迹进行创新研究 寿命，这对人口动态和人口健康有影响。