Delphi Influenza Forecasting Center of Excellence

德尔福流感预测卓越中心

• 批准号: 10462454
• 负责人: Ronald Rosenfeld
• 金额: $ 95万
• 依托单位: CARNEGIE-MELLON UNIVERSITY
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 财政年份: 2019
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2019-09-01 至 2024-08-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://reporter.nih.gov/project-details/10462454
• 关键词: Delphi; Influenza; Forecasting; Center; Excellence

ABSTRACT: There is a critical need for Influenza forecasting among public health decision makers, large organizations, healthcare participants, and the general public. We focus in this proposal on the first and last categories. For federal and state officials, influenza forecasting can help inform the timing of critical communications, vaccination campaigns, messaging to state and local public health agencies, hospitals, healthcare professionals, and the public. During flu pandemics, forecasting can inform the formulation and execution of strategies for vaccine development, vaccine distribution and (application), dissemination of antivirals, and recommendations for non-pharmaceutical interventions. Further, public health communications to healthcare providers can result in more informed doctors’ decisions regarding use of antibiotics and hospitalization. For the general public, reliable short term forecasts can increase the credibility of and trust in pubic health authorities, resulting in greater adherence to recommendations. Short term forecasts can also inform individuals’ decision making, especially with regard to behavior and exposure of flu-vulnerable populations: the elderly, the very young, the pregnant and the immunocompromised. Members of these groups may reconsider their travel plans and other public exposure if warned in advance of an impending epidemic wave at a specific location. While such decisions might also be informed by existing flu surveillance, inherent latencies in traditional surveillance means that nowcasting and short-term forecasting provide a few weeks advance notice -- enough to save many lives. To advance the state of the art in influenza forecasting, we propose an Influenza Forecasting Center of Excellent that will enable and improve the usefulness of forecasts of both seasonal influenza and pandemic influenza, to inform public health responses and policy development at the national, regional, and state level. The center will (1) review and, if needed, revise existing forecasting guidance, targets, and accuracy evaluation, at the national, regional, and state levels; (2) refine methods to create forecast ensembles; (3) identify methodologies and data sources that increase forecast accuracy for start and peak week forecasts, peak intensity, and short-term forecasts at the national, regional, and state level; (4) develop communication products and data visualization methods to describe forecast results and uncertainty for federal and state public health officials and the public; and (5) develop and adapt successful seasonal methodologies, data sources, and communication approaches for forecasting the timing, intensity, and short-term trajectory of an emerging influenza pandemic.

摘要： 公共卫生决策者、大型组织， 医疗保健参与者和公众。我们在本提案中侧重于第一类和最后一类。 对于联邦和州官员来说，流感预测可以帮助通知关键通信的时间， 疫苗接种运动，向州和地方公共卫生机构、医院、医疗保健机构发送信息 专业人士和公众。在流感大流行期间，预测可以为制定和执行 疫苗开发、疫苗分发和（应用）、抗病毒药物传播的战略，以及 建议采取非药物干预措施。此外，公共卫生与医疗保健的沟通 提供者可以使医生在使用抗生素和住院治疗方面做出更明智的决定。 对公众来说，可靠的短期预测可以增加公众健康的可信度和信任度 当局，导致更多的遵守建议。短期预测也可以提供信息 个人的决策，特别是关于流感易感人群的行为和暴露： 老年人、幼儿、孕妇和免疫力低下者。这些团体的成员可能会重新考虑 他们的旅行计划和其他公共接触，如果提前警告即将到来的流行病波在一个特定的 位置.虽然这些决定也可能是由现有的流感监测，固有的lavonin 传统的监视意味着临近预报和短期预报提供几周的提前通知 足以拯救许多生命。 为了提高流感预测的最新水平，我们建议成立一个流感预测中心， 非常好，这将使季节性流感和大流行的预测更加有用 流感，为国家、地区和州一级的公共卫生应对和政策制定提供信息。 该中心将（1）审查并在必要时修订现有的预测指南、目标和准确性 在国家、地区和州一级进行评估;（2）改进创建预报集合的方法;（3） 确定提高开始和高峰周预测准确性的方法和数据源， 峰值强度，以及国家、地区和州一级的短期预报;（4）发展通信 产品和数据可视化方法，用于描述联邦和州的预测结果和不确定性 公共卫生官员和公众;（5）制定和调整成功的季节性方法，数据 来源和沟通方法来预测时间，强度和短期轨迹， 流感大流行。