Delphi Influenza Forecasting Center of Excellence

德尔福流感预测卓越中心

• 批准号: 9907425
• 负责人: Ronald Rosenfeld
• 金额: $ 60万
• 依托单位: CARNEGIE-MELLON UNIVERSITY
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 财政年份: 2019
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2019-09-01 至 2024-08-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://reporter.nih.gov/project-details/9907425
• 关键词: Delphi; Influenza; Forecasting; Center; Excellence

ABSTRACT: There is a critical need for Influenza forecasting among public health decision makers, large organizations, healthcare participants, and the general public. We focus in this proposal on the first and last categories. For federal and state officials, influenza forecasting can help inform the timing of critical communications, vaccination campaigns, messaging to state and local public health agencies, hospitals, healthcare professionals, and the public. During flu pandemics, forecasting can inform the formulation and execution of strategies for vaccine development, vaccine distribution and (application), dissemination of antivirals, and recommendations for non-pharmaceutical interventions. Further, public health communications to healthcare providers can result in more informed doctors’ decisions regarding use of antibiotics and hospitalization. For the general public, reliable short term forecasts can increase the credibility of and trust in pubic health authorities, resulting in greater adherence to recommendations. Short term forecasts can also inform individuals’ decision making, especially with regard to behavior and exposure of flu-vulnerable populations: the elderly, the very young, the pregnant and the immunocompromised. Members of these groups may reconsider their travel plans and other public exposure if warned in advance of an impending epidemic wave at a specific location. While such decisions might also be informed by existing flu surveillance, inherent latencies in traditional surveillance means that nowcasting and short-term forecasting provide a few weeks advance notice -- enough to save many lives. To advance the state of the art in influenza forecasting, we propose an Influenza Forecasting Center of Excellent that will enable and improve the usefulness of forecasts of both seasonal influenza and pandemic influenza, to inform public health responses and policy development at the national, regional, and state level. The center will (1) review and, if needed, revise existing forecasting guidance, targets, and accuracy evaluation, at the national, regional, and state levels; (2) refine methods to create forecast ensembles; (3) identify methodologies and data sources that increase forecast accuracy for start and peak week forecasts, peak intensity, and short-term forecasts at the national, regional, and state level; (4) develop communication products and data visualization methods to describe forecast results and uncertainty for federal and state public health officials and the public; and (5) develop and adapt successful seasonal methodologies, data sources, and communication approaches for forecasting the timing, intensity, and short-term trajectory of an emerging influenza pandemic.

抽象的： 公共卫生决策者、大型组织、机构和机构迫切需要流感预测 医疗保健参与者和公众。我们在此提案中重点关注第一类和最后一类。 对于联邦和州官员来说，流感预测可以帮助告知关键通信的时间， 疫苗接种活动，向州和地方公共卫生机构、医院、医疗保健机构发送信息 专业人士和公众。在流感大流行期间，预测可以为制定和执行 疫苗开发、疫苗分配和（应用）、抗病毒药物传播的策略，以及 非药物干预措施的建议。此外，公共卫生与医疗保健的沟通 提供者可以使医生就抗生素的使用和住院做出更明智的决定。 对于公众来说，可靠的短期预测可以提高公众健康的可信度和信任 当局，从而更好地遵守建议。短期预测也可以提供信息 个人的决策，特别是有关流感易感人群的行为和接触的决策： 老年人、幼儿、孕妇和免疫功能低下的人。这些团体的成员可能会重新考虑 如果在特定的特定时间即将爆发流行病浪潮之前收到警告，他们的旅行计划和其他公众暴露情况 地点。虽然现有的流感监测也可能为此类决策提供信息，但 传统监测意味着临近预报和短期预报会提前几周发出通知 ——足以拯救许多人的生命。 为了推进流感预测的最新技术，我们提议建立一个流感预测中心 非常好，将启用并提高季节性流感和大流行病预测的有用性 流感，为国家、区域和州一级的公共卫生应对措施和政策制定提供信息。 该中心将 (1) 审查并在需要时修订现有的预测指南、目标和准确性 国家、地区和州各级的评估； (2) 完善创建预报集合的方法； (3) 确定可提高开始周和高峰周预测准确性的方法和数据源， 国家、地区和州一级的峰值强度和短期预测； (4)发展沟通 用于描述联邦和州的预测结果和不确定性的产品和数据可视化方法 公共卫生官员和公众； (5) 开发和采用成功的季节性方法、数据 预测事件发生时间、强度和短期轨迹的来源和沟通方法 新出现的流感大流行。