Global Age Patterns of Under-Five Mortality

全球五岁以下儿童死亡率的年龄模式

• 批准号: 10472250
• 负责人: MICHEL GUILLOT
• 金额: $ 4.14万
• 依托单位: UNIVERSITY OF PENNSYLVANIA
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 财政年份: 2021
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2021-09-01 至 2023-06-30
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://reporter.nih.gov/project-details/10472250
• 关键词: 5 year old; Address; Administrative Supplement; Age; Age-Years; Birth; Birth History; Categories; Cause of Death; Cessation of life; Child; Child Health; Child Mortality; Cohort Studies; Consequentialism; Country; Data; Databases; Demographic and Health Surveys; Developing Countries; Event; Geographic Locations; Goals; Gold; Health; Health Policy; Household; Human; Individual; Infant Mortality; Intervention; Knowledge; Lead; Life; Literature; Live Birth; Measures; Methods; Modeling; Monitor; Neonatal Mortality; Nepal; Parents; Participant; Pattern; Play; Population; Pregnancy; Pregnancy Histories; Pregnancy Outcome; Recording of previous events; Reporting; Role; Rural; Sampling; Source; Surveys; System; Systematic Bias; Time; Time trend; age group; data modeling; improved; low and middle-income countries; mortality; mortality risk; neonatal death; parent project; prospective; public health relevance; sex; stillbirth; tool; trend

Project Summary The Under-5 Mortality Rate (U5MR) is a key and widely-used indicator of child health, but it conceals important information about how this mortality is distributed by age. For better understanding and monitoring of child health, it is critical to examine how the risk of death varies within the 0-5 age range. This includes age breakdowns beyond the standard cut-off points of 28 days (for neonatal mortality) and 1 year (for infant mortality). In many populations, however, the age pattern of under-5 mortality is not well known. Less- developed countries, in particular, lack the high-quality detailed vital registration information necessary for the analysis of such age patterns. Sample surveys collecting retrospective birth histories do not satisfactorily fill this gap, because they are subject to systematic biases that are particularly consequential for estimating age patterns. This makes the need for high-quality information on age patterns of under-5 mortality even more critical, because regularities in these age patterns can be used as a powerful tool for evaluating and correcting data when sources are deficient. In the parent project of this competing revision application, we are improving our understanding of age patterns of under-5 mortality by: gathering the largest database to date on high- quality global mortality information by detailed age (by days, weeks, months, and years of age) from birth until age 5, by sex; developing models summarizing regularities about how under-5 mortality is distributed by detailed age in human populations; using these models for evaluating and correcting under-5 mortality information by detailed age in less-developed countries; addressing specific substantive questions about how and why age patterns of under-5 mortality vary by sex, time, and place, with important programmatic implications. The goal of this administrative supplement project is to expand the aims of the parent project by tracking and retrospectively obtaining a pregnancy and birth history (as used in the DHS) with selected participants (live births, stillbirths and neonatal deaths) from a prospective pregnancy cohort study in rural Nepal. This will help us determine if the DHS over or underestimates neonatal mortality and whether misclassification of stillbirths and early neonatal deaths plays a role. These results will add to the literature on the validity of DHS vital event estimation.

项目摘要 5岁以下儿童死亡率(U5MR)是儿童健康的一个关键和广泛使用的指标，但它掩盖了 关于死亡率如何按年龄分布的重要信息。以便更好地了解和监控 就儿童健康而言，研究0-5岁范围内死亡风险的变化是至关重要的。这包括年龄。 超过28天(新生儿死亡率)和1岁(婴儿死亡率)标准分界点的分类 死亡率)。然而，在许多人口中，5岁以下儿童死亡率的年龄模式并不为人所知。更少- 发达国家尤其缺乏必要的高质量详细的生命登记信息。 对这些年龄模式的分析。收集回溯生育史的抽样调查结果不能令人满意 这一差距，因为它们受到系统性偏差的影响，这些偏差对估计年龄特别重要 模式。这使得对关于5岁以下儿童死亡率年龄模式的高质量信息的需求更加迫切。 关键，因为这些年龄模式中的规律性可以被用作评估和纠正的强大工具 当来源不足时的数据。在这个竞争性修订应用程序的父项目中，我们正在改进 我们通过以下方式了解5岁以下儿童死亡率的年龄模式：收集迄今最大的关于高死亡率的数据库 按详细年龄(按天、周、月和年龄段)列出的高质量全球死亡率信息，从出生到 5岁，按性别；正在开发的模型总结了5岁以下儿童死亡率的分布规律 人类人口的详细年龄；使用这些模型评估和校正5岁以下儿童的死亡率 按不发达国家的详细年龄分列的信息；解决具体的实质性问题 以及为什么5岁以下儿童死亡率的年龄模式因性别、时间和地点而不同，具有重要的规划 这意味着什么。此行政补充项目的目标是通过以下方式扩展父项目的目标 跟踪和追溯获得怀孕和出生史(如在国土安全部中使用的) 来自农村预期妊娠队列研究的参与者(活产、死产和新生儿死亡) 尼泊尔。这将帮助我们确定国土安全部是否高估或低估了新生儿死亡率，以及 对死产和新生儿早期死亡的错误分类起到了一定作用。这些结果将增加关于 国土安全部生命事件评估的有效性。

项目成果

Modeling Age Patterns of Under-5 Mortality: Results From a Log-Quadratic Model Applied to High-Quality Vital Registration Data.

• DOI: 10.1215/00703370-9709538
• 发表时间: 2022-02-01
• 期刊: Demography
• 影响因子: 3.5
• 作者: Guillot M;Romero Prieto J;Verhulst A;Gerland P
• 通讯作者: Gerland P

Age patterns of under-5 mortality in sub-Saharan Africa during 1990-2018: A comparison of estimates from demographic surveillance with full birth histories and the historic record.

• DOI: 10.4054/demres.2021.44.18
• 发表时间: 2021-01
• 期刊: Demographic research
• 影响因子: 2.1
• 作者: Eilerts H;Prieto JR;Eaton JW;Reniers G
• 通讯作者: Reniers G

Evaluating pregnancy reporting in Siaya Health and Demographic Surveillance System through record linkage with ANC clinics.

• DOI: 10.23889/ijpds.v7i4.1762
• 发表时间: 2022
• 期刊: International journal of population data science

Divergent age patterns of under-5 mortality in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa: a modelling study.

• DOI: 10.1016/s2214-109x(22)00337-0
• 发表时间: 2022-11
• 期刊: LANCET GLOBAL HEALTH
• 影响因子: 34.3
• 作者: Verhulst, Andrea;Prieto, Julio Romero;Alam, Nurul;Eilerts-Spinelli, Hallie;Erchick, Daniel J.;Gerland, Patrick;Katz, Joanne;Lankoande, Bruno;Liu, Li;Pison, Gilles;Reniers, Georges;Subedi, Seema;Villavicencio, Francisco;Guillot, Michel
• 通讯作者: Guillot, Michel

Estimating the infant mortality rate from DHS birth histories in the presence of age heaping.

在年龄堆积的情况下，估计DHS出生历史的婴儿死亡率。

• DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0259304
• 发表时间: 2021
• 期刊: PloS one
• 影响因子: 3.7
• 作者: Romero Prieto J;Verhulst A;Guillot M
• 通讯作者: Guillot M