Predicting cloud cover and solar intensity at PV sites to improve performance of the Low Voltage distribution network

预测光伏站点的云量和太阳强度，以提高低压配电网络的性能

• 批准号: 133471
• 金额: $ 13.62万
• 依托单位: MENISCUS SYSTEMS LIMITED
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Feasibility Studies
• 财政年份: 2018
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2018 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=133471
• 关键词: Predicting; cloud; cover; solar; intensity

"The rapid rise in the installation of photovoltaic power generation (PV) is leading to operational problems for the Distribution Network Operators (DNOs) and impacting the electricity demand profile. These issues restrict installation of additional PV capacity, increase operating costs for the DNO's, complicate forecasting and balancing of the electricity network and impact margins of the PV operators.This project tests the feasibility of developing a smart system to create short term (up to 1 hour ahead at 5 to 15 minute intervals) predictions of cloud cover and solar intensity at specific locations. These predictions will update every 15 minutes as new satellite imagery becomes available Using these predictions, the project will:1. Predict site power output for PV sites.2. Model the integration of these predictions into the Demand Side Response (DSR) market to predict short term electricity output from PV farms and properties, with and without on-site battery storage.3. Review how these predictions can optimise on-site generation and demand, and enable the creation of a micro grid to optimise local electricity demand.The project is geographically focused on the South West but the system will be suitable for any location in the UK.The benefits of the project being:1. To help balance local power fluctuations in the local distribution network2. To help solar farms that have fixed output contracts identify shortfalls and have some opportunity to manage this shortfall3. To help solar farms that have (or are considering) battery storage to improve the revenue (or business case) of such an asset by better managing the combination of storage and solar output, for example generating additional revenue by participating in DSR markets.The innovation in the project lies primarily in the integration of the short term cloud cover/PV output predictions with DSR capability to deliver a system/service that can be exploited by the commercial PV community.The project team comprises; Cornwall Council, a PV farm owner who is impacted significantly by grid imbalances; BRE -- National Solar Centre, a leading consultant in PV installation and monitoring providing solar advice and expertise; Open Energi, a leading specialist in the DSR market with existing expertise in the PV sector; Meniscus, a real time Big Data analytics specialist who is the project lead. The project calls on specific expertise from two sub-contractors; Pixalytics Ltd a satellite acquisition specialist providing processed imagery; Bath University with expertise in cloud prediction algorithms."

“光伏发电（PV）安装的快速增长正在导致配电网络运营商（DNO）的运营问题，并影响电力需求状况。这些问题限制了额外光伏容量的安装，增加了DNO的运营成本，使电力网络的预测和平衡复杂化，并影响了光伏运营商的利润率。该项目测试了开发智能系统的可行性，该系统可以在特定位置创建短期（最多提前1小时，间隔5到15分钟）的云量和太阳强度预测。这些预测将每15分钟更新一次，因为新的卫星图像可用。预测光伏发电站的发电量。2.将这些预测集成到需求侧响应（DSR）市场中，以预测光伏发电场和物业的短期电力输出，包括现场电池存储和不包括现场电池存储。3.回顾这些预测如何优化现场发电和需求，并使微电网的创建能够优化当地电力需求。该项目在地理上集中在西南部，但该系统将适用于英国的任何地点。该项目的好处是：1.帮助平衡本地配电网络中的本地电力波动2。帮助拥有固定输出合同的太阳能发电场识别短缺，并有机会管理这种短缺。帮助那些（或正在考虑）电池存储以提高收入（或商业案例），通过更好地管理存储和太阳能输出的组合，例如，通过参与DSR市场产生额外收入。该项目的创新主要在于将短期云量/光伏输出预测与DSR能力相结合，以提供系统/项目团队包括：康沃尔理事会，一个受电网不平衡影响很大的光伏农场所有者; BRE -国家太阳能中心，一个提供太阳能咨询和专业知识的光伏安装和监测方面的领先咨询公司; Open Energi，一个在DSR市场拥有光伏部门现有专业知识的领先专家; Meniscus是一位真实的大数据分析专家，他是项目负责人。该项目需要两个分包商的专业知识; Pixalytics有限公司是提供处理图像的卫星采集专家;巴斯大学拥有云预测算法的专业知识。"